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Harley-Davidson (HOG) Down 9.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Harley-Davidson (HOG - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 9.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Harley-Davidson due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Harley-Davidson Q4 Earnings Beat Big

Harley-Davidson reported fourth-quarter 2021 adjusted earnings of 14 cents per share against the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 41 cents. Higher-than-anticipated revenues from both Motorcycles & Related Products and Financial Services segments resulted in this outperformance. The bottom line also compares favorably with the loss of 63 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter.

The iconic motorcycle manufacturer generated consolidated revenues (including motorcycle sales and financial services revenues) of $1,016 million, up 40% from the year-earlier quarter.

Segmental Highlights

Motorcycles and Related Products: Total revenues from the Motorcycle and Related products segment, which constitute the bulk of the firm’s overall revenues, jumped 54% on a year-over-year basis to $816 million. The top line also surpassed the consensus mark of $645 million. This upside primarily resulted from an increase in wholesale shipments, favorable motorcycle unit mix and pricing. The segment’s operating loss narrowed from $196 million to $102 million in the quarter under review. The loss was also narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $163 million.

In the December quarter, revenues from the sale of motorcycles came in at $546 million, increasing 71% year over year. The company shipped 29,100 motorcycles worldwide, up 39%.

During the reported quarter, Harley-Davidson retailed 34,000 motorcycle units globally, up 2% year over year. Its retail motorcycle units sold in North America grew 8% to 19,600. Meanwhile, sales in the EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa), Asia Pacific and Latin America declined 7%, 2% and 16%, respectively, from the year-ago period.

Revenues for Parts & Accessories were up 13% from the prior year to $165 million and topped the consensus mark of $161 million. Revenues for General Merchandise — including Motor Clothes apparel and accessories — went up 46% from the prior-year quarter’s figure to $73 million and topped the consensus mark of $48.73 million.

Financial Services: Revenues for Harley-Davidson Financial Services totaled $200.4 million, up 3.2% year over year and beat the consensus mark of $199 million. Operating income jumped to $95.1 million from the $76.7 million, thanks to lower interest expense. The metric also topped the consensus mark of $76 million.

Financial Position

In the fourth quarter of 2021, selling, general and administrative expenses came down to $259.4 million from $276.4 million witnessed in fourth-quarter 2020. The firm generated $976 million of cash from operating activities in 2021. The company paid dividends of 6 cents per share on a full-year basis in 2021.

Harley-Davidson had cash and cash equivalents of $1,874.7 million as of Dec 31, 2021, significantly down from the $3,257.2 million recorded at the end of 2020. The long-term debt decreased to $4,595.6 million from $5,932.9 million recorded as of Dec 31, 2020.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision flatlined during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, Harley-Davidson has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Harley-Davidson has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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