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Wynn (WYNN) Down 20.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Wynn Resorts (WYNN - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 20.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Wynn due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Wynn Resorts Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Top

Wynn Resorts reported mixed fourth-quarter 2021 results, with earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues beating the same. The top line surpassed the consensus mark for the third straight quarter. The metrics also improved on a year-over-year basis.

The company’s results in the quarter benefited from strong spending per customer and significant new customer sign-ups in its direct business.

Q4 Earnings & Revenues

The company reported an adjusted loss of $1.37 per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.24. In the prior-year quarter, the company had reported an adjusted loss of $2.45 per share.

Revenues during the fourth quarter came in at $1,053.1 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,032 million by 2.1%. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported revenues of $686 million. The company benefitted from the solid contributions of Las Vegas operations.

Wynn Palace Operations

During the fourth quarter, Wynn Palace revenues were $194 million compared with $221.5 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Casino revenues in the reported quarter totaled $145.9 million compared with $159.8 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Rooms and food and beverage revenues plunged 20.4% and 38.6% year over year to $15.5 million and $11.6 million, respectively. During the quarter under review, entertainment, retail and other revenues declined 9.9% year over year to $21.1 million.

In the VIP segment, table games turnover was $1,189.7 million, down 57.6% year over year. VIP table games win rate (based on turnover) was 2.59%, lower than the expected range of 2.7-3%. However, the figure was above 1.97% reported in the prior-year quarter. Table drop at the mass market segment was $592.1 million compared with $658.5 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Table games win in mass market operations amounted to $134.2 million compared with $142.3 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

During the reported quarter, RevPAR declined 18.3% year over year to $94. Occupancy levels in the segment moved up to 50.9% compared with 59.5% reported in the prior-year quarter. The average daily rate (ADR) during the quarter came in at $185, down 3.6% year over year.

Wynn Macau Operations

During the fourth quarter, Wynn Macau’s revenues amounted to $131.7 million compared with $181.9 million in the prior-year quarter. The downside was primarily due to a fall in casino, rooms, food and beverage, and entertainment, retail and other revenues.

Casino revenues in the reported quarter were $97.4 million, down 25.6% year over year. Rooms and food and beverage revenues declined 26.6% and 38.3% year over year to $11.5 million and $8.8 million, respectively. During the quarter, entertainment, retail and other revenues fell 33.8% year over year to $14 million.

Table games turnover in the VIP segment declined 51.6% year over year to $858.1 million. The VIP table games win rate (based on turnover) was 2.85%, falling within the expected range of 2.7-3.0%. The figure was below 3.10% reported in the prior-year quarter.

Table drop in the mass market segment was $527.2 million compared with $632.5 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Table games win in the mass market category was $91.5 million compared with $113.1 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

During the reported quarter, RevPAR fell 26.8% year over year to $112. Occupancy levels in the segment came in at 55.2% compared with 65.5% in the prior-year quarter. However, ADR came in at $204, down 12.4% year over year.

Las Vegas Operations

During the fourth quarter, revenues from Las Vegas operations were $493.9 million compared with $172.5 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

Casino revenues surged 60.6% year over year to $121.2 million. Revenues from food and beverage, rooms, and entertainment, retail and other increased 297.3%, 312.7% and 198.3% year over year to $156.2 million, $159.5 million and $57 million, respectively.

Table games drop increased 96.9% year over year to $584.1 million. Table games win surged 67.7% year over year to $121.3 million. During the fourth quarter, table games win percentage of 20.8% was below the projected range of 22-26% and lower than 24.4% reported in the prior-year quarter.

During the quarter under review, RevPAR soared 261.9% year over year to $380. The occupancy rate came in at 86.3%, up from 34.2% in the prior-year quarter. ADR was $441, up 44.6% year over year.

Encore Boston Harbor

During the fourth quarter, revenues from Encore Boston Harbor operations amounted to $204 million. During the quarter, table games win percentage of 22.2% was above the projected range of 18-22%. The figure was also higher than 20.9% reported in the prior-year quarter.

During the reported quarter, RevPAR increased 33.2% year over year to $297. The occupancy rate came in at 87.2%, up from 73.8% in the prior-year quarter. ADR was $341, up 12.5% year over year.

Operating Performance

During the fourth quarter, adjusted property earnings before interests, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) was $149.1 million compared with $69.8 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

In the quarter under review, adjusted property EBITDA from Macau totaled $(25.9) million against $39.4 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted property EBITDA from Las Vegas operations was $186.2 million compared with $21 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted property EBITDA from Encore Boston Harbor was $68.2 million compared with $16.7 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

Cash Position

As of Dec 31, 2021, Wynn Resorts’ cash and cash equivalents totaled $2.52 billion compared with $2.48 billion as of Sep 30, 2021.

Total current and outstanding debt at the end of the fourth quarter amounted to $11.93 billion, including $3.13 billion of Wynn Las Vegas related debt, $5.97 billion of Macau debt, $2.22 billion of Wynn Resorts Finance debt and $612.9 million of debt held by the retail joint venture, which the company consolidated.

Other Updates

The company entered into a definitive agreement with Realty Income Corporation to sell leaseback of its real estate at Encore Boston Harbor. Quoted at $1.7 billion, the financing and capital structure decision is likely to enhance the company’s financial flexibility in terms of retiring its near-term debt as well as for deploying capital for the construction of additional parking and complimentary non-gaming amenities. The company anticipates closing the deal by the fourth quarter of 2022, subject to regulatory approvals.

The company announced plans to develop and manage a luxury-integrated resort in the UAE, in association with Marjan and RAK Hospitality Holding. The company anticipates the project to support tourism and employment growth in the region.

2021 Highlights

Total revenues in 2021 came in at $3,763.7 million compared with $2,095.9 million in 2020.

Adjusted EBITDA in 2021 came in at $569.4 million against $(324.3) million in 2020.

In 2021, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $(6.12) compared with $(19.18) reported in the previous year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -95.13% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Wynn has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Wynn has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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