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Why Is Marriott (VAC) Down 3.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 3.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Marriott due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Marriott Vacations’ Q4 Earnings Top Estimates, Rise Y/Y

Marriott Vacations reported mixed third-quarter 2021 results, with earnings meeting the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. Nevertheless, the metrics increased on a year-over-year basis. The company’s operations benefitted from strong occupancies and solid contract sales.

Stephen P. Weisz, CEO, stated, "We ended the year on a strong note, growing contract sales by 7% sequentially in the fourth quarter to $406 million, exceeding 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic started."

Despite softness in a few markets due to the Omicron variant, management stated that it expects 2022 full-year contract sales to be 13% higher from 2019 levels and 2022 Adjusted EBITDA to be 17% above 2019 levels both at the midpoint of the guidance.

Earnings & Revenue Discussion

During fourth-quarter 2021, the company reported adjusted earnings of $2.38 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.09 by 13.9%. In the year-ago quarter, the company had reported an adjusted loss of 5 cents per share.

Quarterly revenues of $1,100 million missed the consensus mark of $1,115 million by 1.4%. However, the top line increased 47.3% on a year-over-year basis.

Segmental Performances

Vacation Ownership: During the fourth quarter, revenues in the segment totaled $1,021 million, up 58% from $646 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Revenues, excluding cost reimbursements, increased 102% year over year. The figure rose 8% from third-quarter 2021 levels. In the fourth quarter, revenues from the sale of vacation ownership products increased 10% and rental revenues rose 13% quarter over quarter.

The segment’s adjusted EBITDA came in at $234 million compared with $73 million reported in the prior-year quarter.
 
Exchange & Third-Party Management: The segment’s revenues totaled $71 million in the fourth quarter, down 2.7% from $73 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Revenues, excluding cost reimbursements, increased 8% year over year.

During the fourth quarter, interval international active members dropped 1% quarter over quarter to 1.3 million, while average revenue per member remained largely unchanged on a sequential basis. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA came in at $31 million compared with $28 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

Corporate and Other Results

During the fourth quarter, general and administrative costs increased $19 million year over year owing to an increase in salary and wages costs, higher bonus expenses and a downside in credits related to incentives under the CARES Act.

Expenses & EBITDA

Total expenses in the quarter increased 28.1% year over year to $935 million from $730 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

The company’s adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter amounted to $219 million compared with $72 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

Balance Sheet

As of Dec 31, 2021, cash and cash equivalents were $342 million compared with $448 million as of Sep 30, 2021.

The company had $4.5 billion in debt outstanding (net of unamortized debt issuance costs) at the end of the fourth quarter compared with $4.4 billion reported in the previous quarter. This includes $2.6 billion of corporate debt and $1.9 billion of non-recourse debt related to its securitized notes receivable.

2021 Highlights

Total revenues in 2021 came in at $3,890 million compared with $2,886 million reported in 2020. Adjusted EBITDA in 2021 came in at $657 million compared with $235 million reported in 2020. In 2021, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $4.40 against $(0.45) reported in the previous year.

2022 Outlook

For 2022, the company anticipates contract sales in the range of $1,675-$1,775 million. Adjusted free cash flow is projected in the range of $560-$640 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected between $860 million and $920 million. Adjusted fully diluted EPS for 2022 is expected between $8.72 to $9.65.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

At this time, Marriott has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Marriott has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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