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Humana (HUM) Gears Up For Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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Humana Inc. (HUM - Free Report) is scheduled to release first-quarter 2022 earnings on Apr 27, before the opening bell.
Q1 Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humana's first-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $6.79, which indicates a decline of 11.5% from the prior-year quarter.
The consensus mark for revenues stands at $23.5 billion, suggesting growth of 13.9% from the year-ago quarter.
Earnings Surprise History
Humana boasts an impressive earnings surprise history. Its bottom line beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 3.10%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Continuous investments undertaken by Humana for bringing about automation in processes and digital advancements might have weighed on its first-quarter bottom line. Yet, these advancements are necessary on the part of HUM for boosting operational efficiencies, member acquisition and retention rates.
Humana's medical costs are likely to have remained at normal levels in the to-be-reported quarter as the continued incidence of COVID-related costs might have been partially offset by lower non-COVID utilization in its Medicare Advantage business.
Humana's first-quarter top line is likely to reflect a well-performing Medicare Advantage business, a solid Medicaid footprint and increased contribution from healthcare service businesses. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HUM's total medical membership is pegged at 17 million, which suggests growth of 0.5% from the prior-year quarter.
Regarding segmental performances, Humana's Retail segment is expected to have benefited from higher premiums and an uptick in individual Medicare Advantage membership in the to-be-reported quarter. The consensus mark for premiums in the segment stands at $20.5 billion, indicating an improvement of 10% from the year-ago quarter's reported number.
Well-performing group medical business combined with solid retention rates of existing members are likely to have provided a boost to Humana's Group and Specialty segment's performance. Also, the Healthcare Services segment may have gained on the back of Kindred at Home contribution and consistent growth in the pharmacy and primary care businesses.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Humana this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that's not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Humana has an Earnings ESP of -0.48% because the Most Accurate Estimate of $6.76 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.79. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
While earnings beat looks uncertain for Humana, here are some companies from the Medical space that you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
Avanos Medical, Inc. (AVNS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.17% and a Zacks Rank #1, currently. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Avanos Medical's first-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at 24 cents, which indicates a 4.4% increase from the prior-year quarter's reported figure.
AVNS beat earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters in 2021 and missed twice.
Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +40.22% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Stoke Therapeutics' first-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at 61 cents, which compares favorably with the prior-year quarter's loss of 46 cents.
The consensus mark for STOK's first-quarter 2022 earnings has moved 306.7% north in the past 60 days.
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation (EW - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.15% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Edward Lifesciences' first-quarter 2022 earnings stands at 58 cents, suggesting growth of 7.4% from the prior-year quarter's reported figure.
EW beat earnings estimates in three of the four reported quarters in 2021 and missed once.
Image: Bigstock
Humana (HUM) Gears Up For Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Humana Inc. (HUM - Free Report) is scheduled to release first-quarter 2022 earnings on Apr 27, before the opening bell.
Q1 Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humana's first-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $6.79, which indicates a decline of 11.5% from the prior-year quarter.
The consensus mark for revenues stands at $23.5 billion, suggesting growth of 13.9% from the year-ago quarter.
Earnings Surprise History
Humana boasts an impressive earnings surprise history. Its bottom line beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 3.10%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Humana Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Humana Inc. price-eps-surprise | Humana Inc. Quote
Factors to Note
Continuous investments undertaken by Humana for bringing about automation in processes and digital advancements might have weighed on its first-quarter bottom line. Yet, these advancements are necessary on the part of HUM for boosting operational efficiencies, member acquisition and retention rates.
Humana's medical costs are likely to have remained at normal levels in the to-be-reported quarter as the continued incidence of COVID-related costs might have been partially offset by lower non-COVID utilization in its Medicare Advantage business.
Humana's first-quarter top line is likely to reflect a well-performing Medicare Advantage business, a solid Medicaid footprint and increased contribution from healthcare service businesses. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HUM's total medical membership is pegged at 17 million, which suggests growth of 0.5% from the prior-year quarter.
Regarding segmental performances, Humana's Retail segment is expected to have benefited from higher premiums and an uptick in individual Medicare Advantage membership in the to-be-reported quarter. The consensus mark for premiums in the segment stands at $20.5 billion, indicating an improvement of 10% from the year-ago quarter's reported number.
Well-performing group medical business combined with solid retention rates of existing members are likely to have provided a boost to Humana's Group and Specialty segment's performance. Also, the Healthcare Services segment may have gained on the back of Kindred at Home contribution and consistent growth in the pharmacy and primary care businesses.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Humana this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that's not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Humana has an Earnings ESP of -0.48% because the Most Accurate Estimate of $6.76 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.79. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: HUM currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
While earnings beat looks uncertain for Humana, here are some companies from the Medical space that you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
Avanos Medical, Inc. (AVNS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.17% and a Zacks Rank #1, currently. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Avanos Medical's first-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at 24 cents, which indicates a 4.4% increase from the prior-year quarter's reported figure.
AVNS beat earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters in 2021 and missed twice.
Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +40.22% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Stoke Therapeutics' first-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at 61 cents, which compares favorably with the prior-year quarter's loss of 46 cents.
The consensus mark for STOK's first-quarter 2022 earnings has moved 306.7% north in the past 60 days.
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation (EW - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.15% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Edward Lifesciences' first-quarter 2022 earnings stands at 58 cents, suggesting growth of 7.4% from the prior-year quarter's reported figure.
EW beat earnings estimates in three of the four reported quarters in 2021 and missed once.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.