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Is a Beat Likely for Amgen (AMGN) This Earnings Season?
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We expect Amgen, Inc. (AMGN - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2022 results on Apr 27, after-market hours. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 5.3%.
The large biotech’s performance has been mixed with earnings beating estimates in three of the trailing four quarters while missing in one. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.63%, on average.
Amgen’s stock has risen 14.5% this year so far against a decrease of 14.5% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors to Consider
In the first quarter, volume growth from Amgen key drugs like Prolia, Xgeva, Repatha, Blincyto, Evenity, and Amgen’s biosimilars portfolio is expected to have driven top-line growth
However, increasing branded and generic competition for its legacy products like Enbrel, Aranesp, Epogen, Neupogen, Neulasta and Sensipar is likely to have hurt the top line. Negative volume and net price trends are likely to have hurt Enbrel’s sales in the first quarter.
Lower selling prices due to increased discounting and rebates to maintain formulary access in increasingly competitive categories are expected to have hurt sales of almost all drugs in the quarter. Also, increased competitive pressure is likely to have hurt sales of some drugs.
The respective Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prolia, Xgeva, Blincyto, Repatha, Kyprolis and Evenity sales is pegged at $820 million, $501 million, $128 million, $300 million, $300 million and $157 million.
Sales of products like Otezla and Enbrel are expected to have been lower in the first quarter relative to subsequent quarters of 2022 due to the historical pattern due to the impact of benefit plan changes, insurance re-verification and increased co-pay expenses as U.S. patients work through deductibles. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbrel and Otezla is pegged at $922 million and $574 million, respectively.
First-quarter sales of Amgen’s newly approved KRAS inhibitor, Lumakras, are likely to have been higher than $45 million recorded in the fourth quarter of 2021. The launch of Lumakras, a first-in-class lung cancer treatment, is off to an excellent start while its label expansion studies, which have the potential to significantly expand the currently addressable patient population, have been progressing rapidly
For biosimilars, volume growth is likely to have been offset by lower pricing due to increased competition and average sales price erosion.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Amgen in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Amgen’s Earnings ESP is +0.03%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Amgen has a Zacks Rank #3
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Merck’s stock has risen 13.5% this year so far. Merck topped earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing in two. Merk has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.33%, on average. MRK is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2022 results on Apr 28.
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.56% and a Zacks Rank #3.
AstraZeneca’s stock has rallied 17.6% this year so far. AstraZeneca beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing in one and delivering in-line results in another. AstraZeneca has a four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 2.22%, on average. AZN is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2022 results on Apr 27.
Sanofi (SNY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.89% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Sanofi’s stock has risen 10.3% in the past year. Sanofi topped earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. Sanofi has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.8%, on average. SNY is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2022 results on Apr 28.
Image: Shutterstock
Is a Beat Likely for Amgen (AMGN) This Earnings Season?
We expect Amgen, Inc. (AMGN - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2022 results on Apr 27, after-market hours. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 5.3%.
The large biotech’s performance has been mixed with earnings beating estimates in three of the trailing four quarters while missing in one. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.63%, on average.
Amgen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Amgen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Amgen Inc. Quote
Amgen’s stock has risen 14.5% this year so far against a decrease of 14.5% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors to Consider
In the first quarter, volume growth from Amgen key drugs like Prolia, Xgeva, Repatha, Blincyto, Evenity, and Amgen’s biosimilars portfolio is expected to have driven top-line growth
However, increasing branded and generic competition for its legacy products like Enbrel, Aranesp, Epogen, Neupogen, Neulasta and Sensipar is likely to have hurt the top line. Negative volume and net price trends are likely to have hurt Enbrel’s sales in the first quarter.
Lower selling prices due to increased discounting and rebates to maintain formulary access in increasingly competitive categories are expected to have hurt sales of almost all drugs in the quarter. Also, increased competitive pressure is likely to have hurt sales of some drugs.
The respective Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prolia, Xgeva, Blincyto, Repatha, Kyprolis and Evenity sales is pegged at $820 million, $501 million, $128 million, $300 million, $300 million and $157 million.
Sales of products like Otezla and Enbrel are expected to have been lower in the first quarter relative to subsequent quarters of 2022 due to the historical pattern due to the impact of benefit plan changes, insurance re-verification and increased co-pay expenses as U.S. patients work through deductibles. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbrel and Otezla is pegged at $922 million and $574 million, respectively.
First-quarter sales of Amgen’s newly approved KRAS inhibitor, Lumakras, are likely to have been higher than $45 million recorded in the fourth quarter of 2021. The launch of Lumakras, a first-in-class lung cancer treatment, is off to an excellent start while its label expansion studies, which have the potential to significantly expand the currently addressable patient population, have been progressing rapidly
For biosimilars, volume growth is likely to have been offset by lower pricing due to increased competition and average sales price erosion.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Amgen in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Amgen’s Earnings ESP is +0.03%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Amgen has a Zacks Rank #3
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Merck (MRK - Free Report) with an Earnings ESP of +3.76% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Merck’s stock has risen 13.5% this year so far. Merck topped earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing in two. Merk has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.33%, on average. MRK is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2022 results on Apr 28.
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.56% and a Zacks Rank #3.
AstraZeneca’s stock has rallied 17.6% this year so far. AstraZeneca beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing in one and delivering in-line results in another. AstraZeneca has a four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 2.22%, on average. AZN is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2022 results on Apr 27.
Sanofi (SNY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.89% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Sanofi’s stock has risen 10.3% in the past year. Sanofi topped earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. Sanofi has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.8%, on average. SNY is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2022 results on Apr 28.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.