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Cracker Barrel (CBRL) to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Jun 7. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 5.6%.

The Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal third-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $1.30, indicating a deterioration of 13.9% from $1.51 reported in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $790.4 million. The projection suggests an increase of 10.8% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

 

Let’s discuss the factors that are likely to get reflected in the quarter to be reported.

Factors at Play

Cracker Barrel's fiscal third-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from its off-premise business, retail and marketing efforts and sequential improvements in traffic. This and an emphasis on the roll-out of new point-of-sale systems, covering food and labor management systems, are likely to have aided the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

Increased focus on everyday value proposition across all marketing channels bodes well. During the previous quarter’s earnings call, the company emphasized on shifting marketing spend from traditional TV into more targeted digital video channels. Backed by the flexibility in response to sudden shifts in guest behavior, the initiatives are likely to have driven frequency and attracted new guests in the to-be-reported quarter. This and focus on store-level execution and culinary promotions (featuring dumplings and pancakes) is likely to have boosted the fiscal third-quarter top line. For the fiscal third quarter, the company anticipates total revenues of approximately $800 million.

However, coronavirus-induced supply chain and consumer mobility challenges are likely to have negatively impacted the company’s performance in the fiscal third quarter. This and rising consumer inflation levels is likely to have impacted margins in the to-be-reported quarter. For the fiscal third quarter, the company anticipates commodity inflation at approximately 15% and hourly wage inflation in the range of 11% to 12%.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Cracker Barrel this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that's not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Cracker Barrel has an Earnings ESP of -12.09%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale space that investors may consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

The Kroger Co. (KR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.95% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Shares of Kroger have increased 37% in the past year. KR’s earnings beat the consensus mark in each of the last four quarters. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.1%, on average.

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.38% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Shares of Casey's have declined 3.6% in the past year. CASY’s earnings surpassed the consensus mark thrice in the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 21.6%.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.26% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Shares of Chipotle have gained 5.3% in the past year. CMG’s earnings beat the consensus mark in each of the last four quarters. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.3%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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