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Across the Global Week Ahead, traders get updates from each key global region.
In the Euro Area on Thursday, and earlier across a number of Emerging and Developed Markets, central bank meetings close the loop with recent Fed decisions.
In the USA on Friday, traders hope for calmer Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data, granting Fed voting gives some leeway to go slower with policy tightening.
Over in Mainland China, traders are less concerned about China’s inflation updates coming out this week. They likely focus deeper: on what China’s trade growth augers.
Next are Reuters' five world market themes, reordered for equity traders:
(1) On Friday, U.S. May Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) Data Comes Out
Few pieces of U.S. economic data carry as much weight these days as consumer prices -- so much so that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen both visited the White House in recent days to discuss the inflation issue.
So latest monthly figures due Friday, June 10th will show whether Fed policy tightening is beginning to chip away at the worst inflation in decades.
Analysts polled by Reuters forecast a 0.7% rise in May consumer prices. Prices rose 0.3% month-on-month in April, but that was down to gasoline prices calming after their March surge.
Markets rattled by worries over aggressive policy tightening, will be hoping for a benign May print that bolsters the case for a Fed rate hike pause later this year.
(2) What’s Next for Global Oil Prices?
The return of Chinese workers and motorists from lockdown should give fresh momentum to oil prices, which have risen 50% this year, impervious to data suggesting economic growth is starting to wilt.
Europe's plan to slash Russian imports would cause a supply shortfall of up to 2 million barrels per day in the second half of 2022, ANZ analysts estimate. So, OPEC+ producers' decision to up output by an additional 216,000 bps in July and August has left markets unimpressed.
Running out of spare capacity, OPEC+ could struggle even to deliver that small increase. Brent, currently around $115 a barrel, is expected by analysts to average $101 over 2022, up almost $2 from April's forecast.
“Peak oil-flation” is likely some way off.
(3) Incorporating COVID Lockdowns, What Happens to Mainland Chinese Data?
Shanghai's lockdown has lifted, but a sense of dread lingers. After all, the two-month confinement of 25 million residents could happen elsewhere or be repeated in Shanghai if COVID makes a comeback.
Damage to regional economies has been deep. Trade figures due on June 9 will quantify the hit to demand, and the cloud hanging over domestic and global growth.
Inflation data a day later may be a welcome slow-and-steady outlier to the rest of the world. But it may not be a harbinger of more massive consumer-focused stimulus.
Updated loan growth figures are due by mid-month. Like stocks and China's currency, they have lately suggested confidence is hard to come by.
(4) On Thursday, the Next European Central Bank (ECB) Meeting Wraps
June 9th will probably mark the last meeting of the European Central Bank before it starts raising interest rates — for the first time in eleven years.
ECB policymakers are under pressure to show that their plan for gradual rate rises starting July will be sufficient to tame inflation, which hit a record 8.1% last month.
Consensus is for 25 basis-point rate rises in July and September, but some policymakers say 50 bps should be on the table at the July meeting.
Bigger hikes will be opposed by southern European countries, especially Italy, but markets will listen nonetheless for indications that policy may be tightened faster.
(5) Emerging Market Central Banks Still Tightening
Battered by inflation, China's slowdown, dollar strength, Russia's debt standoff and higher interest rates, emerging markets face a sharp slowdown in investment and GDP growth this year, the Institute of International Finance predicts.
But rate-hike campaigns show no sign of slowing, with Chile, Peru and Poland all expected to raise rates in coming days by between 25 and 75 bps.
India, following a surprise rate rise in May, will almost certainly continue tightening on June 8, with several policymakers urging a front-loading of rate hikes.
War-battered Ukraine jacked up rates to 25% to tackle double-digit inflation. But Russia, headed for recession and debt default, looks set to cut rates further after slashing them to 11% last month.
Top Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) Stocks
Oil companies continue to dominate our #1 list.
(1) Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) : This is a $104 a share Oil & Gas Refining Industry stock, making for a market cap of $56.2B. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
(2) The Williams Companies (WMB - Free Report) : This is a $38 a share Oil & Gas Production and Pipelines Industry stock, making for a market cap of $45.6B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
(3) Hess (HES - Free Report) : This is a $126 a share Oil & Gas Integrated Industry stock, making for a market cap of $39.7B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
One question to ask yourself: Has one Oil sector become better placed than others?
Key Global Macro
On Monday, China’s Caixin Services PMI for May should be 47.3, much improved from the 36.2 print in April.
On Tuesday, we get the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy rate decision.
Japan’s GDP (q/q) for Q1 should be -0.2%, the same as in the prior quarter.
On Wednesday, the Euro Area’s GDP (q/q) for Q1 looks for +0.3%. The (y/y) print should be +5.1%.
On Thursday, China exports for April come out (the prior month showed +3.9% y/y). China imports should be out too (the prior month showed 0.0% y/y).
We get the latest ECB policy rate decision. No change is expected to either the deposit or interest rate.
On Friday, the U.S. Consumer Price Index for May comes out. The m/m reading should be up +0.7%, making for a +8.2% y/y increase. Last month, it was +8.2% y/y.
Conclusion
I will close up with the latest Zacks update on U.S. earnings.
According to Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian, on June 1st, 2022 –
“The Zacks Tech sector is expected to earn -8.8% less earnings in 2022 Q2 compared to the year-earlier period on +2.7% higher revenues.
“This means that the Tech sector will suffer another quarter of margin compression in Q2, after going through the same thing in 2022 Q1, when earnings were up +4.5% on +8.8% higher revenues.
“The Tech sector’s earnings growth is currently expected to turn positive in the last quarter of the year.
“Beyond the Tech sector, total Q2 earnings for the S&P500 index are expected to be up +2.1% from the same period last year on +9.4% higher revenues. This is a significant deceleration from what we have been seeing in the preceding quarters.
“There is a rising degree of uncertainty about the outlook, being driven by a lack of macroeconomic visibility in a backdrop of Fed monetary policy tightening.
“The Ukraine situation is exacerbating pre-existing supply-chain issues, which combined with its impact on oil prices, is weighing on the inflation situation in hard-to-predict ways.
“The evolving earnings revisions trend will reflect this macro backdrop.”
That’s it for me.
Have a successful trading week.
Warm Regards,
John Blank Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
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Friday's CPI Print Matters: Global Week Ahead
Across the Global Week Ahead, traders get updates from each key global region.
In the Euro Area on Thursday, and earlier across a number of Emerging and Developed Markets, central bank meetings close the loop with recent Fed decisions.
In the USA on Friday, traders hope for calmer Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data, granting Fed voting gives some leeway to go slower with policy tightening.
Over in Mainland China, traders are less concerned about China’s inflation updates coming out this week. They likely focus deeper: on what China’s trade growth augers.
Next are Reuters' five world market themes, reordered for equity traders:
(1) On Friday, U.S. May Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) Data Comes Out
Few pieces of U.S. economic data carry as much weight these days as consumer prices -- so much so that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen both visited the White House in recent days to discuss the inflation issue.
So latest monthly figures due Friday, June 10th will show whether Fed policy tightening is beginning to chip away at the worst inflation in decades.
Analysts polled by Reuters forecast a 0.7% rise in May consumer prices. Prices rose 0.3% month-on-month in April, but that was down to gasoline prices calming after their March surge.
Markets rattled by worries over aggressive policy tightening, will be hoping for a benign May print that bolsters the case for a Fed rate hike pause later this year.
(2) What’s Next for Global Oil Prices?
The return of Chinese workers and motorists from lockdown should give fresh momentum to oil prices, which have risen 50% this year, impervious to data suggesting economic growth is starting to wilt.
Europe's plan to slash Russian imports would cause a supply shortfall of up to 2 million barrels per day in the second half of 2022, ANZ analysts estimate. So, OPEC+ producers' decision to up output by an additional 216,000 bps in July and August has left markets unimpressed.
Running out of spare capacity, OPEC+ could struggle even to deliver that small increase. Brent, currently around $115 a barrel, is expected by analysts to average $101 over 2022, up almost $2 from April's forecast.
“Peak oil-flation” is likely some way off.
(3) Incorporating COVID Lockdowns, What Happens to Mainland Chinese Data?
Shanghai's lockdown has lifted, but a sense of dread lingers. After all, the two-month confinement of 25 million residents could happen elsewhere or be repeated in Shanghai if COVID makes a comeback.
Damage to regional economies has been deep. Trade figures due on June 9 will quantify the hit to demand, and the cloud hanging over domestic and global growth.
Inflation data a day later may be a welcome slow-and-steady outlier to the rest of the world. But it may not be a harbinger of more massive consumer-focused stimulus.
Updated loan growth figures are due by mid-month. Like stocks and China's currency, they have lately suggested confidence is hard to come by.
(4) On Thursday, the Next European Central Bank (ECB) Meeting Wraps
June 9th will probably mark the last meeting of the European Central Bank before it starts raising interest rates — for the first time in eleven years.
ECB policymakers are under pressure to show that their plan for gradual rate rises starting July will be sufficient to tame inflation, which hit a record 8.1% last month.
Consensus is for 25 basis-point rate rises in July and September, but some policymakers say 50 bps should be on the table at the July meeting.
Bigger hikes will be opposed by southern European countries, especially Italy, but markets will listen nonetheless for indications that policy may be tightened faster.
(5) Emerging Market Central Banks Still Tightening
Battered by inflation, China's slowdown, dollar strength, Russia's debt standoff and higher interest rates, emerging markets face a sharp slowdown in investment and GDP growth this year, the Institute of International Finance predicts.
But rate-hike campaigns show no sign of slowing, with Chile, Peru and Poland all expected to raise rates in coming days by between 25 and 75 bps.
India, following a surprise rate rise in May, will almost certainly continue tightening on June 8, with several policymakers urging a front-loading of rate hikes.
War-battered Ukraine jacked up rates to 25% to tackle double-digit inflation. But Russia, headed for recession and debt default, looks set to cut rates further after slashing them to 11% last month.
Top Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) Stocks
Oil companies continue to dominate our #1 list.
(1) Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) : This is a $104 a share Oil & Gas Refining Industry stock, making for a market cap of $56.2B. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
(2) The Williams Companies (WMB - Free Report) : This is a $38 a share Oil & Gas Production and Pipelines Industry stock, making for a market cap of $45.6B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
(3) Hess (HES - Free Report) : This is a $126 a share Oil & Gas Integrated Industry stock, making for a market cap of $39.7B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
One question to ask yourself: Has one Oil sector become better placed than others?
Key Global Macro
On Monday, China’s Caixin Services PMI for May should be 47.3, much improved from the 36.2 print in April.
On Tuesday, we get the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy rate decision.
Japan’s GDP (q/q) for Q1 should be -0.2%, the same as in the prior quarter.
On Wednesday, the Euro Area’s GDP (q/q) for Q1 looks for +0.3%. The (y/y) print should be +5.1%.
On Thursday, China exports for April come out (the prior month showed +3.9% y/y). China imports should be out too (the prior month showed 0.0% y/y).
We get the latest ECB policy rate decision. No change is expected to either the deposit or interest rate.
On Friday, the U.S. Consumer Price Index for May comes out. The m/m reading should be up +0.7%, making for a +8.2% y/y increase. Last month, it was +8.2% y/y.
Conclusion
I will close up with the latest Zacks update on U.S. earnings.
According to Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian, on June 1st, 2022 –
“The Zacks Tech sector is expected to earn -8.8% less earnings in 2022 Q2 compared to the year-earlier period on +2.7% higher revenues.
“This means that the Tech sector will suffer another quarter of margin compression in Q2, after going through the same thing in 2022 Q1, when earnings were up +4.5% on +8.8% higher revenues.
“The Tech sector’s earnings growth is currently expected to turn positive in the last quarter of the year.
“Beyond the Tech sector, total Q2 earnings for the S&P500 index are expected to be up +2.1% from the same period last year on +9.4% higher revenues. This is a significant deceleration from what we have been seeing in the preceding quarters.
“There is a rising degree of uncertainty about the outlook, being driven by a lack of macroeconomic visibility in a backdrop of Fed monetary policy tightening.
“The Ukraine situation is exacerbating pre-existing supply-chain issues, which combined with its impact on oil prices, is weighing on the inflation situation in hard-to-predict ways.
“The evolving earnings revisions trend will reflect this macro backdrop.”
That’s it for me.
Have a successful trading week.
Warm Regards,
John Blank
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist