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Tapestry (TPR) to Report Q4 Earnings: What Awaits the Stock?

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Tapestry, Inc. (TPR - Free Report) is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 numbers on Aug 18 before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1,644 million, suggesting an improvement of 1.8% from the prior-year reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share has been stable at 78 cents over the past 30 days, indicating an increase of 5.4% from the year-ago period.

For fiscal 2022, the consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $6.70 billion, indicating an improvement of 16.7% from the prior-year reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal year’s earnings per share is pegged at $3.46, suggesting an improvement of 16.5% from the year-ago period.

The owner of the Coach, Kate Spade and Stuart Weitzman brands has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 17.6%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 27.5%.

Factors to Note

A consumer-centric approach, omnichannel capabilities, brand awareness and an emphasis on high-growth areas are likely to have benefited Tapestry’s fourth-quarter performance. Its Acceleration Program has been a major contributing factor as well. The program is aimed at transforming the company into a leaner and more responsive organization with a clearly defined path and strategy for each brand. We also believe that continued strength in North America and Europe, with steady growth in the rest of Asia, might have offset the pandemic-related disruption in China.

On its last earnings call, Tapestry guided fiscal 2022 revenues to be approximately $6.7 billion. This suggests a high-teens growth rate compared to the prior year on a 52-week comparable basis, with double-digit increases in each brand. The company projected earnings of $3.45 per share, which indicates an increase from the adjusted earnings of $2.97 per share reported in fiscal 2021.

While the aforementioned factors instill optimism regarding the outcome of results, we cannot ignore the impact of ongoing supply-chain headwinds and increased freight costs due to the pandemic. Also, any deleverage in SG&A expenses might get reflected in margins.

Management foresees gross margin contraction in fiscal 2022, inclusive of 260 basis points of headwinds from increased freight expenses as well as geographic mix pressure due to China, a high-margin business. Tapestry projected headwinds in the band of 25-30 cents a share due to incremental pandemic-related pressure in China.

Tapestry, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Tapestry, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Tapestry, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Tapestry, Inc. Quote

What Our Zacks Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tapestry this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Tapestry has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Dollar General (DG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.99% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings has risen by a couple of cents over the past 30 days to $2.92 per share. The consensus mark for DG’s earnings per share suggests 8.6% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Dollar General’s top line is expected to have risen year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $9.38 billion, which suggests a rise of 8.4% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. DG delivered an earnings beat of 2.8%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Ollie's Bargain (OLLI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.06% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to register a bottom-line decline when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 33 cents suggests a decline from the 52 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

Ollie's Bargain’s top line is anticipated to have risen year over year. The consensus mark for OLLI’s revenues is pegged at $457.5 million, indicating an increase of 10% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The Children's Place (PLCE - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.03% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register a bottom-line decline when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 97 cents suggests a decline of 43.3% from the year-ago quarter.

The Children's Place's top line is expected to have declined year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $395.6 million, which indicates a decline of 4.4% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. PLCE has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 58%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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