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This 1 Retail and Wholesale Stock Could Beat Earnings: Why It Should Be on Your Radar
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Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Advance Auto Parts?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Advance Auto Parts (AAP - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.77 a share, just one day from its upcoming earnings release on August 23, 2022.
By taking the percentage difference between the $3.77 Most Accurate Estimate and the $3.75 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Advance Auto Parts has an Earnings ESP of +0.48%. Investors should also know that AAP is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
AAP is one of just a large database of Retail and Wholesale stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Fastenal (FAST - Free Report) .
Fastenal is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on October 11, 2022. FAST's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.48 a share 50 days from its next earnings release.
Fastenal's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +0.35% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.48.
AAP and FAST's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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This 1 Retail and Wholesale Stock Could Beat Earnings: Why It Should Be on Your Radar
Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Advance Auto Parts?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Advance Auto Parts (AAP - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.77 a share, just one day from its upcoming earnings release on August 23, 2022.
By taking the percentage difference between the $3.77 Most Accurate Estimate and the $3.75 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Advance Auto Parts has an Earnings ESP of +0.48%. Investors should also know that AAP is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
AAP is one of just a large database of Retail and Wholesale stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Fastenal (FAST - Free Report) .
Fastenal is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on October 11, 2022. FAST's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.48 a share 50 days from its next earnings release.
Fastenal's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +0.35% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.48.
AAP and FAST's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>