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Dollar Tree Q2 Preview: Can the Earnings Streak Continue?

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The Zacks Retail and Wholesale Sector struggled throughout 2022, down nearly 20% and vastly underperforming the S&P 500. However, the sector has gained 4% over the last month, undoubtedly a positive.

One of the most popular discount retailers out there, Dollar Tree (DLTR - Free Report) , is on deck to unveil Q2 earnings on Thursday, August 25th, before market open.

Dollar Tree offers a wide range of quality everyday general merchandise in many categories, including housewares, seasonal goods, candy and food, toys, health and beauty care, gifts, party goods, stationery, books, personal accessories, and other consumer items.

In addition, the company sports a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) with an overall VGM Score of a B.

How does everything stack up heading into the print? Let’s find out.

Share Performance & Valuation

Dollar Tree shares have been scorching hot in 2022, tacking on nearly 20% in value and crushing the S&P 500’s decline of 13%.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

However, over the last month, Dollar Tree shares have lagged the general market’s 4.5% climb, decreasing by a marginal 1% in value.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

In addition, DLTR shares trade at solid valuation levels, further displayed by its Style Score of a B for Value. The company’s 20.5X forward P/E ratio resides above its five-year median of 18.6X but represents a steep 20% discount relative to its Zacks Sector.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Quarterly Estimates

Analysts have primarily been bullish for the quarter to be reported, with two positive estimate revisions hitting the tape over the last 60 days. Impressively, the Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate of $1.57 reflects a rock-solid 28% Y/Y uptick in quarterly earnings.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

DLTR’s top-line appears to be in exceptional health as well – the Zacks Consensus Sales Estimate for the quarter resides at $6.8 billion, indicating growth of 7% from year-ago quarterly sales of $6.3 billion.

Quarterly Performance & Market Reactions

Dollar Tree has repeatedly exceeded bottom-line estimates, surpassing the Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate in 10 consecutive quarters. In its latest quarterly print, DLTR penciled in a double-digit 20% bottom-line beat.

Top-line results have been mixed – over the company’s last ten quarters, DLTR has recorded five revenue beats. Below is a chart illustrating the company’s income on a quarterly basis.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Day-traders who prefer the long side will appreciate this – shares have moved upwards following each of the company’s last three quarterly reports, all by at least 4.8%.

Putting Everything Together

Dollar Tree shares have posted market-beating returns year-to-date but have lagged over the last month.

In addition, shares trade at solid valuation levels, nicely below their Zacks Sector Average.

Analysts have been bullish in their quarterly outlook, and estimates reflect solid growth within the top and bottom lines.

Dollar Tree has consistently exceeded bottom-line expectations, but revenue results have been mixed.

Furthermore, the market has reacted well in response to the company’s quarterly prints as of late.

Heading into the release, Dollar Tree (DLTR - Free Report) carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) with an Earnings ESP Score of 1.8%.


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