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Why Is Paypal (PYPL) Down 4.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Paypal (PYPL - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 4.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Paypal due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

PayPal's Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates

PayPal Holdings reported non-GAAP earnings of 93 cents per share in second-quarter 2022, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.4%. However, the figure declined 19.1% on a year-over-year basis.

Net revenues of $6.81 billion exhibited year-over-year growth of 10% on an FX-neutral basis and 9% on a reported basis. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.76 billion.

Growing transaction and other value-added services’ revenues drove year-over-year revenue growth in the reported quarter. Also, accelerating U.S. revenues contributed well.

The strong performance by Venmo was another positive.

However, declining international revenues were concerning.

Top Line in Detail

By Type: Transaction revenues amounted to $6.3 billion (932% of net revenues), up 8% from the year-ago quarter. Other value-added services generated revenues of $534 million (accounting for 8% of net revenues), up 21% year over year.

By Geography: Revenues from the United States totaled $3.9 billion (57% of net revenues), up 18% on a year-over-year basis. International revenues were $2.9 billion (43% of net revenues), down 1% from the prior-year quarter.

Key Metrics to Consider

PayPal witnessed year-over-year growth of 6% in total active accounts, with 0.4 million net new active accounts in the reported quarter. The total number of active accounts was 429 million in the quarter under review.

The total number of payment transactions was 5.5 billion, up 16% on a year-over-year basis.

The company’s payment transactions per active account were 48.7 million, which improved 12% from the year-ago quarter.

Total payment volume (TPV) amounted to $339.8 billion for the reported quarter, reflecting year-over-year growth of 9% on a spot rate basis and 13% on a currency-neutral basis.

Notably, year-over-year growth in TPV was primarily driven by robust Venmo, which accounted for $61.4 billion of TPV, rising 6% on a year-over-year basis.

Operating Details

PayPal’s operating expenses were $6.04 billion in the second quarter, up 18.2% from the prior-year quarter. As a percentage of net revenues, the figure expanded 690 basis points (bps) on a year-over-year basis.

The non-GAAP operating margin was 19%, contracting 800 bps from the year-ago quarter.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

As of Jun 30, 2022, cash equivalents and investments were $9.3 billion, up from $7.9 billion as of Mar 31, 2022.

PayPal had a long-term debt balance of $10.2 billion at the end of the second quarter compared with $8.2 billion at the end of the first quarter.

The company generated $1.5 billion of cash from operations, up from $1.2 billion in the previous quarter.

Free cash flow was $1.3 billion in the reported quarter, up from $1.1 billion in the prior quarter.

The company returned $750 million to shareholders by repurchasing 8 million shares.

Guidance

For third-quarter 2022, PayPal projects revenues at $6.8 billion, suggesting year-over-year growth of 10% on a current spot rate basis and 12% on a currency-neutral basis.

Non-GAAP earnings are expected to be 94-96 cents per share.

For 2022, PayPal projects revenues at $27.85 billion, indicating growth of 10% on a spot rate and 11% on a currency-neutral basis.

The company revised the non-GAAP earnings guidance upward from $3.81-$3.93 per share to $3.87-$3.97 per share.

TPV for 2022 is likely to exhibit growth of 12% on a spot rate basis and 16% on a currency-neutral basis.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates flatlined during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 11.4% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Paypal has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Paypal has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Paypal belongs to the Zacks Internet - Software industry. Another stock from the same industry, Pinterest (PINS - Free Report) , has gained 2.7% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2022.

Pinterest reported revenues of $665.93 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +8.6%. EPS of $0.11 for the same period compares with $0.25 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Pinterest is expected to post earnings of $0.05 per share, indicating a change of -82.1% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -42.9% over the last 30 days.

Pinterest has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of D.


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