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Casey's General Stores Q1 Preview: Can Shares Stay Hot?

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The Zacks Retail and Wholesale Sector has tumbled in 2022, losing more than 20% in value and widely lagging behind the S&P 500.

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A company in the sector, Casey’s General Stores (CASY - Free Report) , is scheduled to unveil Q1 results on September 7th after the market close.

Casey’s General Stores operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey's General Store names in 16 Midwestern states, mainly Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois.

How does the company stack up heading into the print? Let’s take a closer look.

Share Performance & Valuation

Casey’s General Stores shares have been notably hot YTD, increasing by nearly 9% in value and vastly outperforming the S&P 500.

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Over the last month, shares have continued their market-beating trajectory, increasing by more than 3% in value and again outperforming the general market.

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This favorable price action alludes that buyers have been busy all year long, defending the stock at a much higher level than most.

CASY shares could be undervalued, as displayed by its Style Score of an A for Value. The company’s forward earnings multiple sits at 23.8X, nicely below its five-year median of 25.7X and representing a 5% discount relative to its Zacks Sector.

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Quarterly Estimates

Analysts have been very bullish on their earnings outlook over the last several months, with two positive estimate revisions hitting the tape and the Consensus Estimate Trend climbing more than 30%.

The Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate of $3.84 pencils in a substantial 20% Y/Y uptick in quarterly earnings.

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CASY’s top-line growth is also stellar – the Zacks Consensus Sales Estimate resides at $4.6 billion, penciling in a steep 45% Y/Y increase in quarterly revenue.

Quarterly Performance & Market Reactions

Casey’s General Stores has consistently reported bottom-line results above expectations, exceeding the Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate in eight of its last ten quarters. Just in its latest print, CASY registered a 4% bottom-line beat.

Top-line results tell essentially the same story – CASY has exceeded top-line estimates in seven of its previous ten prints. Below is a chart illustrating the company’s revenue on a quarterly basis.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

In addition, the market hasn’t reacted favorably following the company’s recent prints, with shares moving downwards following five of its previous six releases.

Putting Everything Together

CASY shares have been notably hot YTD, providing market-beating returns across several timeframes.

The company’s forward earnings multiple resides below its five-year median and Zacks Sector, paired with a Style Score of an A for Value.

Analysts have been bullish in their earnings outlook, and projections reflect steep increases in revenue and earnings.

Further, the company has consistently exceeded quarterly estimates, but the market hasn’t reacted favorably following prints as of late.

Heading into the release, Casey’s General Stores (CASY - Free Report) carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with an Earnings ESP Score of 11%.


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