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Philip Morris (PM) Q3 Earnings Upcoming: Factors to Note

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Philip Morris International Inc. (PM - Free Report) is likely to register top and bottom-line declines from the respective year-ago fiscal quarter’s readings when it reports third-quarter 2022 earnings on Oct 20. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $7,270 million, suggesting a decline of 10.5% from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings has declined by a cent in the past seven days to $1.36 per share, indicating around a 14% decline from the figure reported in the prior-year fiscal quarter. The tobacco giant has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.8%, on average. PM delivered an earnings surprise of 19.4% in the last reported quarter.

We expect third-quarter net revenues to be down 13.7% year over year to $7,007.7 million and the bottom line to dip 1.7% to $1.55 a share.

Factors to Note

On its second-quarter 2022 earnings call, management highlighted that it expects continued uncertainty concerning the recovery pace from the pandemic-led operating landscape, especially in the South & Southeast Asia Regions in 2022. Management expects continued gradual recovery in the duty-free business outside Asia.

Management stated that in 2022, the gross margin is expected to be lower due to a considerable rise in IQOS device volumes (with supply restrictions easing), the increased initial cost of IQOS ILUMA, elevated logistic costs, growth-oriented investments in the smoke-free space, raw material and energy cost inflation and incremental supply-chain costs. Also, the company expects a lower gross margin in the third quarter.

While these aspects raise concerns for the quarter under review, strong pricing power has been working well for Philip Morris. Though higher pricing might lead to a possible decline in cigarette consumption, it is seen that smokers tend to absorb price increases due to the addictive quality of cigarettes. Further, strength in smoke-free net revenues, especially due to IQOS, remains an upside.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Philip Morris this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

Philip Morris has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.93%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some other companies worth considering as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to beat earnings this season.

TreeHouse Foods (THS - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.96% and a Zacks Rank #1. THS is likely to register a top-line improvement when it reports third-quarter 2022 numbers.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TreeHouse Foods’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.3 billion, which indicates an improvement of about 17% from the figure reported in the prior-year fiscal quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly EPS of 13 cents suggests a 71.7% decline from the figure reported in the year-ago fiscal quarter. THS has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 45.2%, on average.

Beyond Meat (BYND - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +9.23% and a Zacks Rank of 2. BYND is likely to register a rise in the top line from the year-earlier quarter’s reported number when it reports third-quarter 2022 results.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BYND’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $113.3 million, suggesting a rise of 6.2% from the figure reported in the prior-year fiscal quarter. The consensus mark for Beyond Meat’s bottom line has improved by a penny in the past 30 days to a loss of $1.10 per share. A loss of 87 cents was reported in the year-ago fiscal quarter.

Kellogg Company (K - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.49% and a Zacks Rank of 3. K is expected to register top-line growth when it reports third-quarter 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kellogg's quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.8 billion, which suggests growth of 3.8% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kellogg's quarterly earnings has remained stable in the past 30 days at 96 cents per share, suggesting a decline of 11.9% from the year-ago quarter’s tally. K delivered an earnings beat of 13.3%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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