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Zacks Earnings ESP: A Better Way to Find Earnings Surprises for Consumer Discretionary
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Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Vista Outdoor?
The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Vista Outdoor (VSTO - Free Report) holds a #2 (Buy) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.71 a share five days away from its upcoming earnings release on November 2, 2022.
VSTO has an Earnings ESP figure of +4.75%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.71 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.63. Vista Outdoor is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
VSTO is one of just a large database of Consumer Discretionary stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Las Vegas Sands (LVS - Free Report) .
Las Vegas Sands is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on January 25, 2023. LVS' Most Accurate Estimate sits at -$0.08 a share 89 days from its next earnings release.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Las Vegas Sands is -$0.10, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +22.5%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, VSTO and LVS could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Zacks Earnings ESP: A Better Way to Find Earnings Surprises for Consumer Discretionary
Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Vista Outdoor?
The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Vista Outdoor (VSTO - Free Report) holds a #2 (Buy) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.71 a share five days away from its upcoming earnings release on November 2, 2022.
VSTO has an Earnings ESP figure of +4.75%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.71 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.63. Vista Outdoor is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
VSTO is one of just a large database of Consumer Discretionary stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Las Vegas Sands (LVS - Free Report) .
Las Vegas Sands is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on January 25, 2023. LVS' Most Accurate Estimate sits at -$0.08 a share 89 days from its next earnings release.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Las Vegas Sands is -$0.10, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +22.5%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, VSTO and LVS could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>