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Election Day Just the Beginning; Small-Biz Owners Reflect Challenges
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Tuesday, November 8, 2022
Not only is today Election Day for the midterms, but it’s the most reported-on midterm cycle in memory. Usually these are the “in between” elections that see relatively low turnout from when the presidential elections happen every four years, but this year promises to bring the highest turnout in midterm history. Early voting alone has assured this election day will likely be the most active ever.
What does this mean for the markets? The smart money is that either the House or Senate — or both — flip Republican from their current slim Democratic margins, and, with a Democrat in the White House and no veto-proof majorities likely, that this would mean “gridlock” for U.S. government. As we’ve seen in voting cycles throughout history, when there’s gridlock on Capitol Hill, markets are much more free to operate with impunity, which is likely a big reason markets are looking for their third-straight up-day.
That said, this is not our fathers’ electoral climate. Not only are we within the margin of error between the two major parties, but hostilities have increased palpably over the past few years; Washington DC seems a much hotter place these days, with many more current and future members of Congress radicalized toward the fringes of their party’s core beliefs. And with questions about voting integrity having been abounded for the past two years, we’re not even likely to get an unchallenged overall result by the end of today, like we had relied upon throughout the post-WWII era.
Early this morning, the NFIB Small Business survey for October was released, posting -0.8 points from September to 91.3, and marking the 10th-straight month of this survey below the half-century average of 98. Unsurprisingly, 33% of small business owners consider inflation to be their biggest problem. This is up 30 basis points (bps) month over month but 40 bps lower than July highs, which represented the highest level since 1979. Nearly 50% of small-business owners said positions were hard to fill, primarily in Transportation, Construction and Manufacturing.
After today’s closing bell, we’ll see fiscal Q4 earnings results from Disney (DIS - Free Report) , which have been mostly revised lower over the past couple months. Current earnings per share are expected at an even 50 cents, +35% year over year. Revenues of more than $21 billion expected represent strong top-line growth of nearly +14%. This is one company expected to continue to benefit from the post-pandemic climate. Disney has missed on earnings three times over the past 10 quarters. For more on what to expect from DIS earnings, click here.
Image: Bigstock
Election Day Just the Beginning; Small-Biz Owners Reflect Challenges
Tuesday, November 8, 2022
Not only is today Election Day for the midterms, but it’s the most reported-on midterm cycle in memory. Usually these are the “in between” elections that see relatively low turnout from when the presidential elections happen every four years, but this year promises to bring the highest turnout in midterm history. Early voting alone has assured this election day will likely be the most active ever.
What does this mean for the markets? The smart money is that either the House or Senate — or both — flip Republican from their current slim Democratic margins, and, with a Democrat in the White House and no veto-proof majorities likely, that this would mean “gridlock” for U.S. government. As we’ve seen in voting cycles throughout history, when there’s gridlock on Capitol Hill, markets are much more free to operate with impunity, which is likely a big reason markets are looking for their third-straight up-day.
That said, this is not our fathers’ electoral climate. Not only are we within the margin of error between the two major parties, but hostilities have increased palpably over the past few years; Washington DC seems a much hotter place these days, with many more current and future members of Congress radicalized toward the fringes of their party’s core beliefs. And with questions about voting integrity having been abounded for the past two years, we’re not even likely to get an unchallenged overall result by the end of today, like we had relied upon throughout the post-WWII era.
Early this morning, the NFIB Small Business survey for October was released, posting -0.8 points from September to 91.3, and marking the 10th-straight month of this survey below the half-century average of 98. Unsurprisingly, 33% of small business owners consider inflation to be their biggest problem. This is up 30 basis points (bps) month over month but 40 bps lower than July highs, which represented the highest level since 1979. Nearly 50% of small-business owners said positions were hard to fill, primarily in Transportation, Construction and Manufacturing.
After today’s closing bell, we’ll see fiscal Q4 earnings results from Disney (DIS - Free Report) , which have been mostly revised lower over the past couple months. Current earnings per share are expected at an even 50 cents, +35% year over year. Revenues of more than $21 billion expected represent strong top-line growth of nearly +14%. This is one company expected to continue to benefit from the post-pandemic climate. Disney has missed on earnings three times over the past 10 quarters. For more on what to expect from DIS earnings, click here.
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