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In this Global Week Ahead, the most important day for U.S. retailers is here.
Shopper’s Black Friday comes after Thursday’s U.S. Thanksgiving Day.
In currency markets, questions are rife on whether “king dollar” is set to decline, finally.
In terms of macro data events, global purchasing managers data (PMIs) will shine a light on the health of key actors in the world economy.
As for monetary policy? On Monday, Mainland China’s PBoC could step up some of its promised support.
Finally, the World Cup soccer tournament kicks off in Qatar.
Next are Reuter’s five world market themes, reordered for equity traders—
(1) On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Offers Monetary Policy Steps.
The Chinese central bank's pledge to step up supportive policy measures should be on display on Monday, when key loan prime rates are set.
Stocks and industrial metal markets are cheering signs of pro-growth initiatives, from help for the beleaguered property market to, crucially, an easing of choking zero-COVID policies.
The COVID outlook remains murky. Noises from Beijing are that "life-saving" measures are essential, which argues against making too much of a two-day reduction in quarantine times.
Other regional central banks will also be setting rates.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is tipped for a super-sized 75 basis point hike on Wednesday, while the Bank of Korea is seen tightening again, but possibly only by a quarter of a point.
(2) The IMF says the Global Economy is in Poor Shape. PMIs for NOV come out.
The International Monetary Fund says the global economic outlook is even gloomier than it was a month ago.
Is the pessimism justified?
Preliminary readings of business activity in November from a number of economies could answer the question in the coming days.
Manufacturing PMIs for October pointed to a deepening contraction in global industry, with developed markets leading the decline.
In most European countries, PMIs are below the 50 marker that separates expansion from contraction -- France was an exception.
Britain is already facing a lengthy recession. Euro zone economic growth has held up better than expected and labor markets remain relatively robust.
But the risk of recession is still elevated for a region grappling with an energy shock and higher costs for anything from financing to wages.
(3) Has the Huge U.S. Dollar Move in 2022 Topped?
The rise of the U.S. dollar has been the dominant trading theme of 2022, thanks to the Federal Reserve's quest to raise interest rates to quell inflation, giving the currency an edge over its peers among investors, who have been starved of any kind of yield for at least a decade.
October's inflation report delivered evidence that consumer price pressures have slowed for the past four straight months from June's 41-year peak of 9.1%.
The dollar index, meanwhile, peaked at a 20-year high of 114.78 in September and has been falling ever since.
Now, it's heading for its biggest quarterly loss since the second quarter of 2017, having shed 4.5% in value.
The time may be fast approaching for dollar bears to emerge from hibernation.
(4) “Black Friday” is Here on Nov. 25th.
With concerns that the U.S. economy may be on the verge of a recession, a key test of consumer demand arrives on Nov. 25, when retailers launch "Black Friday" sales - a day traditionally marked by long lines of shoppers eager to pounce on discounts.
Soaring inflation and surging interest rates could test buying appetite.
October U.S. retail sales increased more than expected, boosted by purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, suggesting the consumer may be on more solid footing heading into year-end. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Retailers have offered mixed results in the most recent earnings season. Just this week, Walmart (WMT - Free Report) lifted its annual sales and profit forecast as demand for groceries was expected to hold up despite higher prices, while Target (TGT - Free Report) forecast a surprise drop in holiday-quarter sales.
(5) The Soccer World Cup Gets Underway in Qatar.
The football World Cup is finally kicking off on Sunday - an event marred by controversy since Qatar was awarded hosting rights 12 years ago, including allegations of corruption and human rights violations.
Qatar has much riding on the tournament passing off smoothly - hoping to affirm Doha's place on the global stage and for an economic boost.
Higher consumption, government spending and services exports are all positives for the Gulf state that has seen its growth outlook trail some of its peers in a region buffeted by high crude prices.
But it remains to be seen how long these effects might last, according to analysts.
Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Here are three Zacks #1 Ranked stocks that also show nice Zacks VGM scores.
(1) Marathon Refining (MPC - Free Report) : This is a $120 a share Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing company, with a market cap of $56.4B. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
(2) Stellantis (STLA - Free Report) : This is a $15 a share Foreign Auto company, with a market cap of $46.2B. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
(3) RWE AG (RWEOY - Free Report) : This is a $42 a share European Utility-Electric Power company, with a market cap of $28.4B. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of E.
Their respective sectors and industries are worthy to note too (Oil and Gas, Autos, and a European Utility).
Key Global Macro
On Monday, the PBoC rate decision starts the week off. 3.65% is the current Loan Prime Rate.
On Tuesday, Canada’s retail sales for SEP come out. The look is for -0.7% m/m.
Canada’s New Housing Price Index is out too. I see +6.8% y/y is the prior. They have a housing bubble going on.
On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) offers its rate decision. Their policy rate is at 3.5% now.
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is out for November. I see a 50.4 prior reading.
On Thursday, the Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI is out for November. I see a 50.7 prior reading.
It is Thanksgiving Day in the USA.
On Friday, German GDP for Q3 is out. The prior reading is +1.2% y/y.
Conclusion
Happy Thanksgiving all.
Have a Great Trading Week!
Warm Regards,
John Blank
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
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The World Cup: Global Week Ahead
In this Global Week Ahead, the most important day for U.S. retailers is here.
Shopper’s Black Friday comes after Thursday’s U.S. Thanksgiving Day.
In currency markets, questions are rife on whether “king dollar” is set to decline, finally.
In terms of macro data events, global purchasing managers data (PMIs) will shine a light on the health of key actors in the world economy.
As for monetary policy? On Monday, Mainland China’s PBoC could step up some of its promised support.
Finally, the World Cup soccer tournament kicks off in Qatar.
Next are Reuter’s five world market themes, reordered for equity traders—
(1) On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Offers Monetary Policy Steps.
The Chinese central bank's pledge to step up supportive policy measures should be on display on Monday, when key loan prime rates are set.
Stocks and industrial metal markets are cheering signs of pro-growth initiatives, from help for the beleaguered property market to, crucially, an easing of choking zero-COVID policies.
The COVID outlook remains murky. Noises from Beijing are that "life-saving" measures are essential, which argues against making too much of a two-day reduction in quarantine times.
Other regional central banks will also be setting rates.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is tipped for a super-sized 75 basis point hike on Wednesday, while the Bank of Korea is seen tightening again, but possibly only by a quarter of a point.
(2) The IMF says the Global Economy is in Poor Shape. PMIs for NOV come out.
The International Monetary Fund says the global economic outlook is even gloomier than it was a month ago.
Is the pessimism justified?
Preliminary readings of business activity in November from a number of economies could answer the question in the coming days.
Manufacturing PMIs for October pointed to a deepening contraction in global industry, with developed markets leading the decline.
In most European countries, PMIs are below the 50 marker that separates expansion from contraction -- France was an exception.
Britain is already facing a lengthy recession. Euro zone economic growth has held up better than expected and labor markets remain relatively robust.
But the risk of recession is still elevated for a region grappling with an energy shock and higher costs for anything from financing to wages.
(3) Has the Huge U.S. Dollar Move in 2022 Topped?
The rise of the U.S. dollar has been the dominant trading theme of 2022, thanks to the Federal Reserve's quest to raise interest rates to quell inflation, giving the currency an edge over its peers among investors, who have been starved of any kind of yield for at least a decade.
October's inflation report delivered evidence that consumer price pressures have slowed for the past four straight months from June's 41-year peak of 9.1%.
The dollar index, meanwhile, peaked at a 20-year high of 114.78 in September and has been falling ever since.
Now, it's heading for its biggest quarterly loss since the second quarter of 2017, having shed 4.5% in value.
The time may be fast approaching for dollar bears to emerge from hibernation.
(4) “Black Friday” is Here on Nov. 25th.
With concerns that the U.S. economy may be on the verge of a recession, a key test of consumer demand arrives on Nov. 25, when retailers launch "Black Friday" sales - a day traditionally marked by long lines of shoppers eager to pounce on discounts.
Soaring inflation and surging interest rates could test buying appetite.
October U.S. retail sales increased more than expected, boosted by purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, suggesting the consumer may be on more solid footing heading into year-end. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Retailers have offered mixed results in the most recent earnings season. Just this week, Walmart (WMT - Free Report) lifted its annual sales and profit forecast as demand for groceries was expected to hold up despite higher prices, while Target (TGT - Free Report) forecast a surprise drop in holiday-quarter sales.
(5) The Soccer World Cup Gets Underway in Qatar.
The football World Cup is finally kicking off on Sunday - an event marred by controversy since Qatar was awarded hosting rights 12 years ago, including allegations of corruption and human rights violations.
Qatar has much riding on the tournament passing off smoothly - hoping to affirm Doha's place on the global stage and for an economic boost.
Higher consumption, government spending and services exports are all positives for the Gulf state that has seen its growth outlook trail some of its peers in a region buffeted by high crude prices.
But it remains to be seen how long these effects might last, according to analysts.
Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Here are three Zacks #1 Ranked stocks that also show nice Zacks VGM scores.
(1) Marathon Refining (MPC - Free Report) : This is a $120 a share Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing company, with a market cap of $56.4B. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
(2) Stellantis (STLA - Free Report) : This is a $15 a share Foreign Auto company, with a market cap of $46.2B. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
(3) RWE AG (RWEOY - Free Report) : This is a $42 a share European Utility-Electric Power company, with a market cap of $28.4B. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of E.
Their respective sectors and industries are worthy to note too (Oil and Gas, Autos, and a European Utility).
Key Global Macro
On Monday, the PBoC rate decision starts the week off. 3.65% is the current Loan Prime Rate.
On Tuesday, Canada’s retail sales for SEP come out. The look is for -0.7% m/m.
Canada’s New Housing Price Index is out too. I see +6.8% y/y is the prior. They have a housing bubble going on.
On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) offers its rate decision. Their policy rate is at 3.5% now.
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is out for November. I see a 50.4 prior reading.
On Thursday, the Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI is out for November. I see a 50.7 prior reading.
It is Thanksgiving Day in the USA.
On Friday, German GDP for Q3 is out. The prior reading is +1.2% y/y.
Conclusion
Happy Thanksgiving all.
Have a Great Trading Week!
Warm Regards,
John Blank
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist