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Autodesk (ADSK) Down 2.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Autodesk (ADSK - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 2.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Autodesk due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Autodesk Q3 Earnings and Revenues Meet Estimates

Autodesk reported third-quarter fiscal 2023 non-GAAP earnings of $1.70 per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The bottom line improved 27% year over year.

The company reported revenues of $1.28 billion, which also matched the consensus mark. The figure grew 14% year over year. On a constant-currency basis, revenues were up 15%. The upside was driven by resilient subscription renewal rates, new business growth and strong competitive performance.

Top-Line Details

Autodesk’s subscription revenues (93% of total revenues) increased 14% year over year (up 15% on a constant-currency basis) to $1.19 billion. Maintenance revenues (1% of total revenues) declined to $16 million from $18 million in the year-ago quarter. Other revenues (6% of total revenues) surged 17% to $76 million in the reported quarter.

Recurring revenues contributed 98% to Autodesk’s third-quarter fiscal 2023 revenues. The net revenue retention rate was within the company’s 100-110% targeted range.

Region-wise, revenues from the Americas (42% of revenues) increased 17% from the year-ago quarter’s levels to $541 million. Revenues from the EMEA, which accounted for 36% of revenues, climbed 10% to $476 million. Revenues from the Asia-Pacific (22% of revenues) rallied 14% to $263 million.
Billings of $1.36 billion advanced 16% year over year in the reported quarter.

Product Top-Line Details

Autodesk offers primarily four product families — Architecture, Engineering and Construction (“AEC”), AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT, Manufacturing (“MFG”) and Media and Entertainment (“M&E”).

AEC (45% of revenues) revenues increased 13% year over year to $575 million. AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT (28% of revenues) revenues rose 10% to $354 million. MFG (20% of revenues) revenues increased 13% to $254 million. M&E (7% of revenues) revenues surged 37% to $97 million.

Operating Results

Autodesk reported a non-GAAP operating income of $465 million, up 27.4% year over year. The non-GAAP operating margin expanded 400 basis points (bps) from the year-ago quarter’s levels to 36%.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

As of Oct 31, 2022, Autodesk had cash and cash equivalents (including marketable securities) of $1.80 billion compared with $1.53 billion as of Jul 31, 2022.

Deferred revenues increased 13% year over year to $3.78 billion. Unbilled deferred revenues at the end of the fiscal third quarter were $896 million, up from $888 million in the year-ago quarter.

The total remaining performance obligation (RPO) of $4.68 billion and the current RPO of $3.14 billion increased 11% and 9%, respectively.

Cash flow from operating activities was $469 million, while free cash flow was $460 million in the reported quarter. During the first nine months of fiscal 2023, ADSK generated $1.16 billion worth of cash from operating activities and its free cash flow was $1.13 billion.

In the first nine months of fiscal 2023, the company repurchased 4.4 million shares for $873 million at an average price of approximately $200 per share.

FY23 Guidance

Autodesk updated its fiscal 2023 guidance. The company now projects fiscal 2023 revenues between $4.99 billion and $5.005 billion instead of the earlier range of $4.985-$5.035 billion. Billings are estimated in the $5.57-$5.67 billion band, down from the earlier projection in the band of $5.705-$5.805 billion.

Non-GAAP earnings are now expected between $6.56 and $6.62 per share compared with the previous forecast in the range of $6.52-$6.71 per share. ADSK continues to expect a non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 36% in fiscal 2023. Free cash flow is now projected in the $1.9-$1.98 billion band, down from the previous forecast in the band of $2.000-$2.080 billion.

For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, Autodesk expects revenues between $1.303 billion and $1.318 billion. Non-GAAP earnings are anticipated in the range of $1.77-$1.83 per share.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Autodesk has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Autodesk has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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