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Deere (DE) Down 0.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Deere (DE - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Deere due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Deere Q4 Earnings Top Estimates, Rise Y/Y on Solid Demand

Deere reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 earnings of $7.44 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.08. The bottom line surged 81% from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s levels as higher shipment volumes and price realization helped offset the steep production and other expenses. DE witnessed strong demand for both the farm and construction equipment.

Net sales of equipment operations (comprising Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry) were $14.3 billion, up 40% from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s levels. Revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.6 billion. Total net sales (including financial services and others) were $15.5 billion, up 37% from the year-earlier fiscal quarter’s reading.

Operational Update

The cost of sales in the reported quarter was up 31% from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s reading to $10.1 billion. Total gross profit in the reported quarter surged 68% from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s levels to $4.1 billion. Selling, administrative and general expenses rose 27% to $1,192 million from the prior-year fiscal period’s levels.

Total operating profit (including financial services) surged 75% from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s levels to $2,957 million in the fiscal fourth quarter.

Segmental Performance

The Production & Precision Agriculture segment’s sales rose 59% from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s levels to $7,434 million, primarily owing to higher shipment volumes and price realization. Operating profit in the segment surged 124% from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s tally to $1,740 million. Gains from higher shipment volumes and price realization were offset by escalated production costs, higher R&D and SA&G expenses, and the impact of higher reserves on the remaining assets in Russia.

Small Agriculture & Turf sales rose 26% to $3,544 million from the year-earlier fiscal quarter’s levels due to higher shipment volumes and price realization, partially offset by the unfavorable impact of currency translation. The segment’s operating profit rose 46% from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s levels to $506 million, mainly aided by price realization and improved shipment volumes, partially offset by elevated production costs, higher R&D and SA&G expenses, and the unfavorable effects of foreign exchange.

Construction & forestry segment sales were $3,373 million, up 20% from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s levels, backed by price realization and higher volumes, partially offset by the negative effects of currency translation. The segment’s operating profit was up 53% from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s levels to $414 million on the back of price realization and increased sales volume. However, higher production costs and the impact of higher reserves on the remaining assets in Russia dampened these gains.

Net revenues in Deere’s Financial Services division were $988 million in the reported quarter compared with the prior-year fiscal quarter’s $869 million. The segment’s operating profit amounted to $297 million, down 1% from the year-ago fiscal quarter’s levels.

Financial Update

Deere reported cash and cash equivalents of $4.8 billion at the end of fiscal 2022 compared with $8 billion recorded at the end of the prior fiscal year. Cash generated from operating activities was $4.7 billion in fiscal 2022 compared with $7.7 billion in the earlier fiscal year. At the end of fiscal 2022, the long-term borrowing was $33.6 billion, up from $33 billion at the end of fiscal 2021.

Fiscal 2022 Performance

Deere’s earnings improved 23% from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s reading to $23.28 per share in fiscal 2022, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $22.88. In fiscal 2022, net sales of equipment operations were $47.9 billion, up 21% from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s levels. Revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $47.6 billion. Total net sales (including financial services and others) were $52.6 billion, up 19% from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s number.

Outlook

Deere expects net income for fiscal 2023 between $8 billion and $8.5 billion compared with $7.1 billion in fiscal 2022. Favorable farm fundamentals and increased investment in infrastructure will drive demand for DE’s equipment.

Net sales for Production & Precision Agriculture are expected to register sales growth in the 15-20% range in fiscal 2023 from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s levels. Sales growth for Small Agriculture & Turf is expected to be flat to up 5% and for Construction & forestry to be up around 10%.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

Currently, Deere has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Deere has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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