Tuesday, December 27, 2022
Advance Trade in Goods numbers for November are out on this first trading day of a holiday-shortened week, with figures a marked improvement month over month: -$83.3 billion versus -$98.8 billion in October. It’s the smallest level since December 2020, and well off the all-time low we saw in March of this year, with both Imports and Exports down.
Imports overall were down -7.6%: cap goods -4.3%, consumer goods -13.0%, vehicles -8.9%, industrial supplies -6.0% and food, feed and beverages -5.8%. Exports reduced -3.1% overall last month. The trade gap is important in putting global market context onto the U.S. economy, among plenty of other data to come ahead of the next Fed meeting and monetary policy decision, February 1st.
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October (note: two months in arrears) pulled back a tad, month over month: +9.2% versus +10.7%, seasonally adjusted, the previous month. For the 20-city survey, headline came in -0.5% month over month, tighter than the -1.2% expected and the prior month’s print. We’ll pick this apart finer in our afternoon piece.
FHFA U.S. Home Price Index, also for October, came in flat — 0.0%, versus +0.9% the previous month. Year over year, this is +9.8%, lower than the upwardly revised +11.1% for September (again: these figures are well into our rear view). At a glance, the numbers are providing a housing market navigably lower, at least as of autumn just past. We don’t see any wheels wobbling off at this stage, but the trajectory remains: “lower for longer.”
Most market participants are keeping their hopes for a long-awaited Santa Claus Rally this season at bay; 2023 projections are just starting to take shape, and there are still plenty of potential hazards for the economy going forward. Housing is already depleted; the next major catalyst will likely be jobs totals, whose reports don’t come out til a week from Wednesday/Friday. So any “rally” here would appear to be on fumes.
It’s a ho-hum pre-market, on holiday week trading volumes: the Dow is +70 points, the S&P 500 is +5 and the Nasdaq -2 points at this hour. This is an improvement on where we were an hour before the opening bell, but down from early morning projections about stronger business coming out of China. A new narrative on today’s market would likely have difficulty taking root.
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Image: Bigstock
Pre-Markets Muted on Trade, Housing Numbers
Tuesday, December 27, 2022
Advance Trade in Goods numbers for November are out on this first trading day of a holiday-shortened week, with figures a marked improvement month over month: -$83.3 billion versus -$98.8 billion in October. It’s the smallest level since December 2020, and well off the all-time low we saw in March of this year, with both Imports and Exports down.
Imports overall were down -7.6%: cap goods -4.3%, consumer goods -13.0%, vehicles -8.9%, industrial supplies -6.0% and food, feed and beverages -5.8%. Exports reduced -3.1% overall last month. The trade gap is important in putting global market context onto the U.S. economy, among plenty of other data to come ahead of the next Fed meeting and monetary policy decision, February 1st.
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October (note: two months in arrears) pulled back a tad, month over month: +9.2% versus +10.7%, seasonally adjusted, the previous month. For the 20-city survey, headline came in -0.5% month over month, tighter than the -1.2% expected and the prior month’s print. We’ll pick this apart finer in our afternoon piece.
FHFA U.S. Home Price Index, also for October, came in flat — 0.0%, versus +0.9% the previous month. Year over year, this is +9.8%, lower than the upwardly revised +11.1% for September (again: these figures are well into our rear view). At a glance, the numbers are providing a housing market navigably lower, at least as of autumn just past. We don’t see any wheels wobbling off at this stage, but the trajectory remains: “lower for longer.”
Most market participants are keeping their hopes for a long-awaited Santa Claus Rally this season at bay; 2023 projections are just starting to take shape, and there are still plenty of potential hazards for the economy going forward. Housing is already depleted; the next major catalyst will likely be jobs totals, whose reports don’t come out til a week from Wednesday/Friday. So any “rally” here would appear to be on fumes.
It’s a ho-hum pre-market, on holiday week trading volumes: the Dow is +70 points, the S&P 500 is +5 and the Nasdaq -2 points at this hour. This is an improvement on where we were an hour before the opening bell, but down from early morning projections about stronger business coming out of China. A new narrative on today’s market would likely have difficulty taking root.
Questions or comments about this article and/or its author? Click here>>