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Will Cost-Inflation & Currency Woes Mar 3M's (MMM) Q4 Earnings?

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3M Company (MMM - Free Report) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter financial numbers on Jan 24, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter earnings has been revised downward by 2.9% in the past 60 days. However, the company has a stellar earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 8.4%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for 3M this earnings season.

3M Company Price and EPS Surprise

3M Company Price and EPS Surprise

3M Company price-eps-surprise | 3M Company Quote

Factors to Note

Weakness in the Safety and Industrial segment due to softness in disposable respirator demand is likely to have hurt 3M’s fourth-quarter performance. For the fourth quarter, the company expects a headwind of $150-$200 million from lower disposable respirator demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Safety and Industrial segment revenues in the fourth quarter suggests a 13.2% decline from the year-ago reported number.

The Transportation & Electronics unit is likely to have put up a weak show due to a decline in consumer electronics demand, particularly for smartphones, tablets and TVs. Semiconductor supply-chain constraints are also expected to have weighed on the segment’s performance. The consensus mark for Transportation & Electronics segment revenues in the fourth quarter indicates a 9.6% decrease from the year-ago reported number.

Reduced consumer spending due to inflationary pressure is likely to have impacted the Healthcare and Consumer segments’ performances. The Healthcare unit’s performance is also expected to have been hurt by softness in the oral care business. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Consumer segment revenues in the fourth quarter shows an 11.4% drop from the year-ago reported number. The same for the Healthcare segment implies an 11.6% decline from the year-ago reported number.

Raw material and logistics cost inflation are likely to have dented 3M’s bottom line in the fourth quarter. For the fourth quarter, the company expects a headwind of approximately $100-$150 million from high raw materials and logistics costs. Also, foreign currency headwinds are expected to have affected MMM’s top line in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

However, strength across the automotive, electronics, safety, digitization and sustainability end markets is expected to have aided 3M’s fourth-quarter performance. Pricing actions, restructuring savings and spending discipline are likely to have supported its margin performance.

What Does the Zacks Model Say?

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for 3M this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates, which is not the case here, as elaborated below. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Earnings ESP: 3M has an Earnings ESP of -1.88% as the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $2.30, lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.34. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: 3M currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Highlights of Q3 Earnings

3M’s third-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings of $2.69 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.61. The bottom line increased year over year. Net sales of $8,619 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8,698.8 million and declined approximately 4% year over year due to 1% negative impact from divestitures and 5% from foreign currency translation due to a stronger U.S. dollar.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies that you may want to consider as, according to our model, these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Caterpillar (CAT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings numbers on Jan 31.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Caterpillar’s fourth-quarter earnings has been revised upward by more than 100% in the past 90 days. CAT pulled off a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 14.7%, on average.

IDEX Corporation (IEX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.44% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is slated to release fourth-quarter financial numbers on Jan 31.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IDEX’s fourth-quarter earnings has been revised upward by 1.5% in the past 90 days. IEX delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.7%, on average.

Xylem (XYL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.27% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is set to release fourth-quarter results on Feb 7.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Xylem’s fourth-quarter earnings has been revised upward by a penny in the past 90 days. XYL pulled off a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.3%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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