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Progressive (PGR) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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The Progressive Corporation (PGR - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter 2022 earnings on Jan 25, before the opening bell. The company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 60.48% in the last reported quarter.
Factors to Note
Net premiums earned in the fourth quarter are likely to have benefited from rate increases, compelling product portfolio, well performing Vehicle and Property businesses and increased policies in force. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is pegged at $12.6 billion, suggesting growth of 9.1% from the year-ago reported number. We estimate net premiums earned of $12.3 billion in the to-be-reported quarter.
Policies in force are likely to have improved, given the focus on segmentation and prudent risk selection. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for personal lines policies in force stands at 24 million, indicating an improvement of 5.5% from the year-ago reported figure. We estimate policies in force of 24.7 million in the to-be-reported quarter.
PGR’s personal auto business is likely to have benefited from its focus on marketing and competitive product offerings and strong market presence.
Higher interest rates on floating-rate securities in portfolio and purchases of new investments with higher coupon rates are likely to have aided net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $337 million. We estimate a net investment income of $230.5 million in the to-be-reported quarter.
Improved premiums, higher investment income, increase in service revenues and fees and other revenues might have contributed to the improvement in revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues stands at $13.3 billion, suggesting year-over-year growth of approximately 10.4%.
Expenses might have risen on a higher losses and loss adjustment expenses, other underwriting expenses and increase in policy acquisition costs, increase in service expenses and increase in interest expense, the consensus mark for the loss and loss-adjustment expense ratio is pegged at 75.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at $1.50, indicating a 42.8% increase from the year-ago quarter.
What the Zacks Model Says
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Progressive this time around. A stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). This is not the case as you can see below.
Earnings ESP: Progressive has an Earnings ESP of -0.29%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The Progressive Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Some insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to come up with an earnings beat this time around are:
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.48% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at $1.34, indicating an increase of 5.5% from the year-ago reported figure.
ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters while missed in one.
Chubb Limited (CB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.47% and a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at $4.26, up 11.8% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
CB’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
First American Financial Corporation (FAF - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.35% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2022 earnings stands at $1.45, indicating a decrease of 36.4% from the year-ago reported figure.
FAF’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters while missed in one.
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Progressive (PGR) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
The Progressive Corporation (PGR - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter 2022 earnings on Jan 25, before the opening bell. The company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 60.48% in the last reported quarter.
Factors to Note
Net premiums earned in the fourth quarter are likely to have benefited from rate increases, compelling product portfolio, well performing Vehicle and Property businesses and increased policies in force. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is pegged at $12.6 billion, suggesting growth of 9.1% from the year-ago reported number. We estimate net premiums earned of $12.3 billion in the to-be-reported quarter.
Policies in force are likely to have improved, given the focus on segmentation and prudent risk selection. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for personal lines policies in force stands at 24 million, indicating an improvement of 5.5% from the year-ago reported figure. We estimate policies in force of 24.7 million in the to-be-reported quarter.
PGR’s personal auto business is likely to have benefited from its focus on marketing and competitive product offerings and strong market presence.
Higher interest rates on floating-rate securities in portfolio and purchases of new investments with higher coupon rates are likely to have aided net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $337 million. We estimate a net investment income of $230.5 million in the to-be-reported quarter.
Improved premiums, higher investment income, increase in service revenues and fees and other revenues might have contributed to the improvement in revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues stands at $13.3 billion, suggesting year-over-year growth of approximately 10.4%.
Expenses might have risen on a higher losses and loss adjustment expenses, other underwriting expenses and increase in policy acquisition costs, increase in service expenses and increase in interest expense, the consensus mark for the loss and loss-adjustment expense ratio is pegged at 75.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at $1.50, indicating a 42.8% increase from the year-ago quarter.
What the Zacks Model Says
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Progressive this time around. A stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). This is not the case as you can see below.
Earnings ESP: Progressive has an Earnings ESP of -0.29%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The Progressive Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
The Progressive Corporation price-eps-surprise | The Progressive Corporation Quote
Zacks Rank: PGR currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Some insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to come up with an earnings beat this time around are:
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.48% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at $1.34, indicating an increase of 5.5% from the year-ago reported figure.
ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters while missed in one.
Chubb Limited (CB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.47% and a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at $4.26, up 11.8% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
CB’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
First American Financial Corporation (FAF - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.35% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2022 earnings stands at $1.45, indicating a decrease of 36.4% from the year-ago reported figure.
FAF’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters while missed in one.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.