We expect investors to focus on the sales performance of Novavax, Inc.’s (NVAX Quick QuoteNVAX - Free Report) protein-based COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, its sole marketed product, when it reports fourth-quarter 2022 results.

Since the past year, shares of Novavax have plunged 88.9% compared with the industry’s 10.9% decline.

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NVAX’s surprise record has been dismal so far, as its earnings missed expectations in each of the last four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 280.19%, on average. In the last reported quarter, Novavax’s earnings missed estimates by 197.29%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for the quarter to be reported.

Factors to Note

Novavax generates all its product revenues from the sale of its protein-based COVID-19 vaccine. The protein-based COVID vaccine gained authorization for use as a primary two-dose regimen in more than 40 countries, including the United States and European countries. The vaccine has also been authorized in many of these markets for use as a third/booster dose.

Novavax’s top line is likely to have been aided by COVID-19 vaccine sales in the fourth quarter. Per our model estimates, the company is expected to generate around $258 million from product revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. The booster dose is likely to generate more revenues than the primary regimen as most of the population has already completed its primary vaccinations.

Novavax is also advancing the clinical development of its Omicron-based COVID vaccine. Last November, management announced that a late-stage study evaluating NVX-CoV2515, Novavax’s Omicron BA.1 vaccine candidate, met its primary strain-change endpoint. At an FDA advisory committee meeting held last month, the panel unanimously recommended moving toward a uniform vaccine strain composition for all COVID-19 vaccine doses (whether as primary series or booster). At the meeting, Novavax stated that it requires six months to produce a new version of its protein-based COVID-19 vaccine designed to match circulating COVID-19 variants. Investors would likely request updates on the same at the upcoming earnings call.

With the impact of the pandemic receding, COVID-related sales throughout the medical industry have started to decline and multiple companies have issued guidance expecting a sharp fall in the sales of their COVID-related vaccines and therapeutics in 2023. Investors will likely be expecting an update from management along the same lines at the upcoming earnings call.

We also expect management to provide an update on Novavax’s other pipeline candidates.

Novavax developed its nanoparticle seasonal influenza vaccine candidate for senior patients aged 65 years and above. Though management had previously conducted a pivotal late-stage study for its influenza vaccine, which demonstrated both efficacies of the candidate, it had paused the development of the same to prioritize the advancement of its COVID-19 vaccine. In December 2022, management initiated a phase II study evaluating the vaccine in older adults aged 50 through 80 years. If approved, the company believes that this vaccine will be a game changer for the prevention of influenza.

Last December, NVAX initiated a phase II study evaluating its COVID-19-Influenza Combination (“CIC”) vaccine candidatein older adults (50-80 years). The initiation of this study was based on positive data from the phase I/II study on the CIC vaccine announced in October 2022, which proved that the CIC vaccine was feasible, well-tolerated and immunogenic. In fact, the immune responses were comparable to the standalone influenza vaccine candidate and standalone NVX-CoV2373 formulations.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Novavax this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Novavax’s Earnings ESP is 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at a loss of $1.27 per share.

Zacks Rank: Novavax currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few other stocks worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Syndax Pharmaceuticals (SNDX Quick QuoteSNDX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.39% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Syndax Pharmaceuticals’ stock has surged 68.6% in the past year. Syndax Pharmaceuticals beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while meeting the mark on one occasion. Syndax Pharmaceuticals has delivered an earnings surprise of 95.39%, on average. In the last reported quarter, SNDX reported an earnings surprise of 10.77%.

Alkermes (ALKS Quick QuoteALKS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +49.57% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Alkermes’ stock has risen 15.1% in the past year. Earnings of ALKS beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while meeting the mark on another. On average, Alkermes witnessed a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 306.73%, on average. In the last reported quarter, Alkermes’ earnings met estimates. ALKS is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 16, before market opens.

Bayer (BAYRY Quick QuoteBAYRY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.70% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Bayer’s stock has risen 4.5% this year so far. Bayer beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing the mark on one occasion. Bayer has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.23%, on average. In the last reported quarter, Bayer’s earnings missed estimates by 3.33%. BAYRY is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 28.

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