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Owl Rock Capital (ORCC) to Post Q4 Earnings: What to Expect

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Owl Rock Capital Corporation is set to report its fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 22, after the closing bell.

In the last reported quarter, the business development company reported adjusted earnings per share of 37 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.8% due to growth in the portfolio, increased interest rates and higher dividend income. However, the positives were partially offset by higher costs.

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the fourth-quarter earnings announcement.

The Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share of 40 cents has witnessed no movement in the past week. The estimate indicates a 14.3% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported earnings of 35 cents per share. Our estimate for the fourth-quarter bottom line of 39 cents per share suggests 10.4% year-over-year growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total investment income is pegged at $328.2 million, suggesting a rise of 16.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Owl Rock Capital’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on the other occasion, the average surprise being 3%. This is depicted in the graph below.

Factors to Note

In the fourth quarter, the net investment income of Owl Rock Capital is likely to have benefited on the back of solid credit performance, growing interest rates and improved dividend income.

ORCC’s dividend income is expected to have witnessed an uptick due to recurring dividends earned from its investments in its portfolio company Wingspire. Also, nonrecurring dividends stemming from efficient portfolio companies are likely to have aided the metric. Our estimate suggests 177% year-over-year growth in dividend income in the fourth quarter.

The investment portfolio of Owl Rock Capital is likely to have expanded in the to-be-reported quarter, thanks to solid demand for lucrative financing solutions. Our estimate for interest income indicates 2.7% growth from the prior-year quarter.

The factors stated above are expected to have positioned the company for year-over-year growth. However, repayments are expected to have remained soft in the quarter under review. This, in turn, is likely to have dampened the prospects of origination volume in the to-be-reported quarter.

Owl Rock Capital is likely to have witnessed elevated operating expenses. The increase is likely to have been due to higher interest expenses and performance-based incentive fees. This, in turn, is likely to have put a strain on its margins in the to-be-reported quarter, making an earnings beat uncertain. Our estimate for operating expenses suggests a 7.5% increase from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Owl Rock Capital this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. The Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at 40 cents per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Owl Rock Capital currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Owl Rock Capital, here are some companies in the broader Finance space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

AssetMark Financial Holdings, Inc. (AMK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.15% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked player. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AssetMark Financial’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 44 cents per share, indicating a 33.3% improvement from the year-ago figure. AMK beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed on the other occasion, with an average surprise of 6.1%.

Silver Spike Investment Corp. (SSIC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.56% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Silver Spike Investment’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 20 cents per share, which improved 11.1% in the past 30 days. SSIC witnessed one upward estimate revision against none in the opposite direction, in the past 30 days.

Monroe Capital Corporation (MRCC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.00% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Monroe Capital’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 27 cents per share, indicating an 8% year-over-year rise. MRCC beat earnings estimates in one of the past four quarters and met on three other occasions, with an average surprise of 4%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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