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Why Is CN (CNI) Down 2.4% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Canadian National (CNI - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 2.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CN due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Earnings Miss at Canadian National in Q4

Quarterly earnings of $1.55 per share (C$2.10) missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.56 and improved 13.97% year over year. Quarterly revenues of $3,345.7 million (C$4,542 million) outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,326.1 million and increased year over year. The uptick was driven by higher fuel surcharge revenues, freight rate increases, higher volumes of Canadian grain and the positive translation impact of a weaker Canadian dollar.

Freight revenues (C$4,400 million), which contributed 96.8% to the top line, increased 23% year over year. Freight revenues at the Petroleum and Chemicals; Metals and minerals; Forest products; Coal; Grain and fertilizers; Intermodal; and Automotive segments increased 5%, 27%, 19%, 42%, 48%, 13% and 48%, respectively.

Carloads revenue ton-miles (RTMs) grew 6%. Segment-wise, carloads in Petroleum and chemicals; Metals and minerals; Coal; Grain and fertilizers and Automotive grew 1%, 3%, 25%, 21% and 15%, respectively. The same at Forest products and Intermodal decreased by 1% and 7%, respectively.

Freight revenues per carload climbed 20% year over year in the reported quarter, while freight revenues per RTM improved 15%.

Operating expenses grew by 20% year over year to C$2,630 million due to higher fuel prices and the negative translation impact of a weaker Canadian dollar.

Adjusted operating income increased 21.1% year over year to C$1,912 million. Adjusted operating ratio (defined as operating expenses as a percentage of revenues) came in at 57.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022, in line with the year-ago reported quarter.

Liquidity

Canadian National generated a free cash flow of C$1,335 million during the fourth quarter compared with the year-ago quarter’s C$1,262 million.

CNI’s board of directors has declared a dividend hike of 8%, effective from the first quarter of 2023. This marks the 27th consecutive year of dividend increase.

Canadian National anticipates to deliver earnings growth in low single-digit percentage in 2023 from 2022 levels due to a softer economic outlook.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

At this time, CN has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, CN has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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