A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX Quick QuoteFCX - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 10.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Freeport-McMoRan due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Freeport’s Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates in Q4

Freeport recorded net income (attributable to common stock) of $697 million or 48 cents per share in fourth-quarter 2022, down from $1,106 million or 74 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share came in at 52 cents, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 40 cents.

Revenues declined roughly 7% year over year to $5,758 million. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,341 million. The results were hurt by lower copper and gold prices. The company, however, witnessed higher copper and gold sales in the reported quarter.

Operational Update

Copper production rose roughly 4% year over year to 1,070 million pounds in the reported quarter.

Consolidated sales rose 2% year over year to 1,042 million pounds of copper. The company sold 458,000 ounces of gold (up around 16% year over year) and 19 million pounds of molybdenum (stable year over year) during the quarter. Gold sales rose primarily due to increased operating rates and recoveries at the Grasberg minerals district.

Consolidated average unit net cash costs per pound of copper were $1.53, up around 19% year over year. The upside was caused by increased energy prices, higher costs for sulfuric acid as well as maintenance and supplies.

Average realized price for copper was $3.77 per pound, down roughly 15% year over year. Average realized price per ounce for gold declined around 1% year over year to $1,789. Average realized price per pound for molybdenum was $18.94, down around 2% year over year.

FY22 Results

Earnings or full-year 2022 were $2.39 per share, down from $2.90 per share a year ago. Revenues were $22,780 million for the full year, down around 0.3% year over year.

Financial Position

Cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2022 were $8,146 million, up around 1% year over year. The company’s long-term debt was $9,583 million, up around 6% year over year.

Cash flows provided by operations were $1.1 billion for the reported quarter and $5.1 billion for full-year 2022.

Guidance

For 2023, Freeport anticipates consolidated sales volumes to be roughly 4.2 billion pounds of copper.

The company also expects gold sales volumes of 1.7 million ounces for 2023. It also expects sales of 80 million pounds of molybdenum for the year.

For the first quarter of 2023, Freeport expects sales volumes to be 0.9 billion pounds of copper, 300,000 ounces of gold and 20 million pounds of molybdenum.

Unit net cash costs for copper are predicted to average $1.60 per pound for 2023.

The company also expects operating cash flows of approximately $7.2 billion for 2023.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

At this time, Freeport-McMoRan has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Freeport-McMoRan has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.