A month has gone by since the last earnings report for CNO Financial (CNO Quick QuoteCNO - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 3.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CNO due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

CNO Financial's Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates

CNO Financial reported fourth-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 56 cents, which matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate and surpassed our estimate of 50 cents. However, the bottom line dropped 36% year over year.

Total revenues declined 9.4% year over year to $973.6 million in the quarter under review. The top line beat the consensus mark by 6.7% and our estimate of $917.2 million.

The quarterly results benefited on the back of improved annuity collected premiums, higher direct-to-consumer life sales and a declining level of benefits and expenses. However, the upside was partly offset by reduced insurance policy income and net investment income.

Insurance policy income of $626 million dipped 1% year over year and fell shy of our estimate of $659.9 million.

CNO’s net investment income declined 20% year over year to $315.7 million in the fourth quarter.

Annuity collected premiums of $431 million rose 8% year over year. New annualized premiums for health and life products advanced 4% year over year to $90.7 million.

Total benefits and expenses came in at $918.2 million, which dipped 1% year over year in the fourth quarter. The decline in the metric was attributable to lower amortization expenses.

Financial Update (as of Dec 31, 2022)

CNO Financial exited the fourth quarter with unrestricted cash and cash equivalents of $575.7 million, which tumbled 8.9% from the 2021-end level.

Total assets of $33,339.2 million fell 7.9% from the figure in 2021 end.

Total shareholders’ equity declined nearly four-fold from the figure as of Dec 31, 2021 to $1,400.8 million.

Book value per share plunged 72% year over year to $12.25 in the fourth quarter.

Adjusted operating return on equity came in at 8.6%, which deteriorated 350 basis points (bps) year over year.

Debt-to-capital ratio deteriorated 2,700 bps year over year to 44.8% at the fourth-quarter end.

Share Repurchase and Dividend Update

CNO Financial rewarded its shareholders with $26.1 million in the form of share buybacks worth $10 million and dividends of $16.1 million.

Full-Year Update

CNO Financial’s adjusted EPS of $2.33 slipped 16% year over year. Total revenues decreased 13.2% year over year to $3,576.8 million in 2022.

Annuity collected premiums rose 15% year over year.

Management rewarded $244.8 million to shareholders via share repurchases of $180.0 million and dividends worth $64.8 million.

Forward View

Continued favorable sales within the Consumer and Worksite Divisions are likely to benefit CNO Financial in 2023.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted 16.44% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, CNO has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise CNO has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.