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These 2 Medical Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

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Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.

The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Exact Sciences?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Exact Sciences (EXAS - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at -$0.75 a share, just 29 days from its upcoming earnings release on April 25, 2023.

Exact Sciences' Earnings ESP sits at +4.66%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the -$0.75 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$0.79. EXAS is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

EXAS is one of just a large database of Medical stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Fate Therapeutics (FATE - Free Report) .

Fate Therapeutics is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on May 3, 2023. FATE's Most Accurate Estimate sits at -$0.56 a share 37 days from its next earnings release.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Fate Therapeutics is -$0.58, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +2.17%.

EXAS and FATE's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


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Fate Therapeutics, Inc. (FATE) - free report >>

Exact Sciences Corporation (EXAS) - free report >>

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