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How to Boost Your Portfolio with Top Finance Stocks Set to Beat Earnings

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Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.

The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Ameriprise Financial Services?

The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Ameriprise Financial Services (AMP - Free Report) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $7.26 a share 11 days away from its upcoming earnings release on April 24, 2023.

By taking the percentage difference between the $7.26 Most Accurate Estimate and the $7.16 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Ameriprise Financial Services has an Earnings ESP of +1.5%. Investors should also know that AMP is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

AMP is part of a big group of Finance stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Ventas (VTR - Free Report) as well.

Slated to report earnings on May 4, 2023, Ventas holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $0.70 a share 21 days from its next quarterly update.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ventas is $0.70, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +0.41%.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, AMP and VTR could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


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Ventas, Inc. (VTR) - free report >>

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP) - free report >>

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