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What's in Store for Molina Healthcare (MOH) in Q1 Earnings?
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Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2023 results on Apr 26, after the market close.
Q1 Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molina Healthcare’s first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $5.13, which indicates an improvement of 4.7% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. We estimate EPS to grow 4.9% year over year to $5.14 in the to-be-reported quarter.
The consensus mark for revenues stands at $8,235 million, suggesting 6% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. We project revenues to rise 5.8% year over year to $8,218.2 million.
Earnings Surprise History
Molina Healthcare boasts a solid earnings surprise history. Its bottom line beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average being 2.95%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Growing premiums stemming from an expanding membership within its Medicare and Medicaid businesses are expected to have contributed to the revenue growth of Molina Healthcare in the first quarter. Contract wins from federal and state authorities coupled with the renewal of agreements are expected to have driven membership growth of the health insurer.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premium revenues is pegged at $8,000 million, which indicates a rise of 6.2% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. We expect the same to grow 5.6% year over year to $7,955.9 million in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Medicaid unit of Molina Healthcare is likely to have benefited on the back of closed buyouts and contract wins. Meanwhile, an aging U.S. population and membership growth within the Medicare Advantage-Part D ("MAPD") product might have provided an impetus to its Medicare business in the first quarter. A prudent pricing strategy is expected to have provided some respite to MOH’s Marketplace unit in the to-be-reported quarter.
The consensus mark for membership growth within the Medicaid and Medicare lines of business at Molina Healthcare indicates improvements of 3.1% and 12.2%, respectively, from their corresponding year-ago quarters’ reported numbers.
Additionally, the top line is expected to have been driven by higher investment income, resulting from rate increases, as well as other revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment income and other revenue stands at $65 million, which indicates more than double from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
Despite tactical medical cost-management efforts, the continued incidence of COVID-related expenses might have hurt the Medical Care Ratio ("MCR") of Molina Healthcare in the first quarter. The consensus mark for the same is pegged at 88%, hinting toward an increase of 100 basis points from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. This, in turn, is likely to have been a roadblock to MOH’s premiums as a rising MCR implies lower leftover premiums consequent to payment of insurance claims.
An elevated operating expense level as a result of higher general and administrative expenses, and depreciation and amortization is expected to have dampened its margins in the to-be-reported quarter.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Molina Healthcare this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here, as you see below.
Earnings ESP: Molina Healthcare has an Earnings ESP of -0.84% because the Most Accurate Estimate of $5.09 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.13. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: MOH currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Molina Healthcare, here are some companies from the Medical space, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NVO’s first-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $1.12 per share, indicating a rise of 19.2% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
Novo Nordisk’s earnings outpaced estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark once, the average surprise being 3.00%.
Humana Inc. (HUM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.15% and a Zacks Rank of 2, currently. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HUM’s first-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $9.25 per share, suggesting 15.1% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Humana’s bottom line beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 12.95%.
Incyte Corporation (INCY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.10% and a Zacks Rank of 3, currently. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for INCY’s first-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at 76 cents per share, indicating a 38.2% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
Incyte’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark twice, the average surprise being 3.19%.
Image: Bigstock
What's in Store for Molina Healthcare (MOH) in Q1 Earnings?
Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2023 results on Apr 26, after the market close.
Q1 Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molina Healthcare’s first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $5.13, which indicates an improvement of 4.7% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. We estimate EPS to grow 4.9% year over year to $5.14 in the to-be-reported quarter.
The consensus mark for revenues stands at $8,235 million, suggesting 6% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. We project revenues to rise 5.8% year over year to $8,218.2 million.
Earnings Surprise History
Molina Healthcare boasts a solid earnings surprise history. Its bottom line beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average being 2.95%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Molina Healthcare, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Molina Healthcare, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Molina Healthcare, Inc. Quote
Factors to Note
Growing premiums stemming from an expanding membership within its Medicare and Medicaid businesses are expected to have contributed to the revenue growth of Molina Healthcare in the first quarter. Contract wins from federal and state authorities coupled with the renewal of agreements are expected to have driven membership growth of the health insurer.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premium revenues is pegged at $8,000 million, which indicates a rise of 6.2% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. We expect the same to grow 5.6% year over year to $7,955.9 million in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Medicaid unit of Molina Healthcare is likely to have benefited on the back of closed buyouts and contract wins. Meanwhile, an aging U.S. population and membership growth within the Medicare Advantage-Part D ("MAPD") product might have provided an impetus to its Medicare business in the first quarter. A prudent pricing strategy is expected to have provided some respite to MOH’s Marketplace unit in the to-be-reported quarter.
The consensus mark for membership growth within the Medicaid and Medicare lines of business at Molina Healthcare indicates improvements of 3.1% and 12.2%, respectively, from their corresponding year-ago quarters’ reported numbers.
Additionally, the top line is expected to have been driven by higher investment income, resulting from rate increases, as well as other revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment income and other revenue stands at $65 million, which indicates more than double from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
Despite tactical medical cost-management efforts, the continued incidence of COVID-related expenses might have hurt the Medical Care Ratio ("MCR") of Molina Healthcare in the first quarter. The consensus mark for the same is pegged at 88%, hinting toward an increase of 100 basis points from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. This, in turn, is likely to have been a roadblock to MOH’s premiums as a rising MCR implies lower leftover premiums consequent to payment of insurance claims.
An elevated operating expense level as a result of higher general and administrative expenses, and depreciation and amortization is expected to have dampened its margins in the to-be-reported quarter.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Molina Healthcare this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here, as you see below.
Earnings ESP: Molina Healthcare has an Earnings ESP of -0.84% because the Most Accurate Estimate of $5.09 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.13. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: MOH currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Molina Healthcare, here are some companies from the Medical space, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +10.71% and a Zacks Rank of 1, currently. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NVO’s first-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $1.12 per share, indicating a rise of 19.2% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
Novo Nordisk’s earnings outpaced estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark once, the average surprise being 3.00%.
Humana Inc. (HUM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.15% and a Zacks Rank of 2, currently. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HUM’s first-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $9.25 per share, suggesting 15.1% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Humana’s bottom line beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 12.95%.
Incyte Corporation (INCY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.10% and a Zacks Rank of 3, currently. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for INCY’s first-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at 76 cents per share, indicating a 38.2% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
Incyte’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark twice, the average surprise being 3.19%.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.