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Moderna (MRNA) to Report Q1 Earnings: Will It Beat Estimates?
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We expect Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2023 results on May 4, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 22.53%.
Moderna’s shares have declined 27.6% in the year so far compared with the industry’s fall of 7.0%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company’s surprise history has been mixed, with earnings beating estimates in two of the trailing four quarters while missing on the other two occasions. The average surprise is 10.69%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.
Factors to Note
During the first quarter, Moderna’s sales are likely to have been driven by its mRNA-based COVID-19 monovalent and bivalent vaccine doses across the globe. However, like other COVID-19 vaccine makers, sales are likely to have been much lower than the prior-year quarter’s levels. The downside is likely to have been caused by the impact of the receding pandemic. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for first-quarter product sales is pegged at $1.11 billion and $1.02 billion, respectively.
Apart from its COVID-19 vaccine, Moderna is developing more than 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates in different stages of clinical studies, targeting different indications including cancer. The company is developing a few pipeline candidates in collaboration with partners like Merck (MRK - Free Report) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals that use its mRNA technology to develop therapies targeting different indications. These partners pay milestone payments to Moderna, which are reflected as collaboration revenues and vary every quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for collaboration revenues in first-quarter 2023 is pegged at $13.0 million and $10.0 million, respectively.
Earlier this month, Moderna and Merck announced detailed results from the KEYNOTE-942 study, evaluating their personalized cancer vaccine (PCV) candidate mRNA-4157 as an adjuvant treatment in melanoma patients. The companies revealed that after a follow-up period of around two years, 22.4% of patients treated with mRNA-4157 plus Merck’s blockbuster drug Keytruda reported disease recurrence/death compared with 40% in the control arm. Data from a subgroup analysis of the study also showed that the improvement in RFS was regardless of tumor mutational burden status.
Based on detailed analysis of the above data, management now believes that the mRNA-4157/Keytruda combination has the potential to extend the lives of patients with high-risk melanoma. Moderna and Merck are currently discussing the above results with regulatory authorities. The companies also intend to start a phase III study in melanoma patients later this year. The companies plan to expand the PCV vaccine to other cancer indications, including non-small cell lung cancer.
Investors will also be keen for an update on mRNA-1010, the company’s seasonal influenza vaccine candidate. Since the onset of 2023, Moderna faced two major setbacks in late-stage clinical studies evaluating mRNA-1010.
This February, Moderna announced mixed results from a late-stage study (P301), evaluating its influenza vaccine mRNA-1010 conducted in the Southern Hemisphere. While the vaccine showed promise against the influenza A virus, it did not show any improvement against the influenza B virus. Earlier this month, management provided the first interim analysis from a phase III efficacy study (P302) evaluating mRNA-1010 conducted in the Northern Hemisphere. The P302 study failed to meet the statistical threshold needed to declare early success. Based on these analyses of data, management has decided to add an update to mRNA-1010 to improve immunogenicity against the influenza B strains. Following this immunogenicity update, Moderna plans to start a phase III confirmatory study on the candidate by the end of this month.
Investors could expect an update on the regulatory pathway for Moderna’s RSV vaccine mRNA-1345. Earlier this month, management announced that a regulatory application seeking approval of its RSV vaccine is on track for submission to the FDA before the end of second-quarter 2023.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Moderna in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Moderna’s Earnings ESP is +6.83% as the Most Accurate Estimate of loss of $1.65 is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.77. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Here are a few stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Amarin Corporation (AMRN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +100.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Amarin’s stock has gained 5.0% in the year-to-date period. Amarin beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing the mark on the other two occasions. The company has delivered a negative earnings surprise of 14.29%, on average. Amarin will report its first-quarter results on May 3, before the opening bell.
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +51.77% and a Zacks Rank #3.
In the year so far, CRISPR Therapeutics’ shares have risen 20.8%. CRISPR Therapeutics beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing the mark on the other two occasions. CRISPR Therapeutics has delivered an earnings surprise of 3.19%, on average.
Image: Bigstock
Moderna (MRNA) to Report Q1 Earnings: Will It Beat Estimates?
We expect Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2023 results on May 4, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 22.53%.
Moderna’s shares have declined 27.6% in the year so far compared with the industry’s fall of 7.0%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company’s surprise history has been mixed, with earnings beating estimates in two of the trailing four quarters while missing on the other two occasions. The average surprise is 10.69%.
Moderna, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Moderna, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Moderna, Inc. Quote
Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.
Factors to Note
During the first quarter, Moderna’s sales are likely to have been driven by its mRNA-based COVID-19 monovalent and bivalent vaccine doses across the globe. However, like other COVID-19 vaccine makers, sales are likely to have been much lower than the prior-year quarter’s levels. The downside is likely to have been caused by the impact of the receding pandemic. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for first-quarter product sales is pegged at $1.11 billion and $1.02 billion, respectively.
Apart from its COVID-19 vaccine, Moderna is developing more than 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates in different stages of clinical studies, targeting different indications including cancer. The company is developing a few pipeline candidates in collaboration with partners like Merck (MRK - Free Report) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals that use its mRNA technology to develop therapies targeting different indications. These partners pay milestone payments to Moderna, which are reflected as collaboration revenues and vary every quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for collaboration revenues in first-quarter 2023 is pegged at $13.0 million and $10.0 million, respectively.
Earlier this month, Moderna and Merck announced detailed results from the KEYNOTE-942 study, evaluating their personalized cancer vaccine (PCV) candidate mRNA-4157 as an adjuvant treatment in melanoma patients. The companies revealed that after a follow-up period of around two years, 22.4% of patients treated with mRNA-4157 plus Merck’s blockbuster drug Keytruda reported disease recurrence/death compared with 40% in the control arm. Data from a subgroup analysis of the study also showed that the improvement in RFS was regardless of tumor mutational burden status.
Based on detailed analysis of the above data, management now believes that the mRNA-4157/Keytruda combination has the potential to extend the lives of patients with high-risk melanoma. Moderna and Merck are currently discussing the above results with regulatory authorities. The companies also intend to start a phase III study in melanoma patients later this year. The companies plan to expand the PCV vaccine to other cancer indications, including non-small cell lung cancer.
Investors will also be keen for an update on mRNA-1010, the company’s seasonal influenza vaccine candidate. Since the onset of 2023, Moderna faced two major setbacks in late-stage clinical studies evaluating mRNA-1010.
This February, Moderna announced mixed results from a late-stage study (P301), evaluating its influenza vaccine mRNA-1010 conducted in the Southern Hemisphere. While the vaccine showed promise against the influenza A virus, it did not show any improvement against the influenza B virus. Earlier this month, management provided the first interim analysis from a phase III efficacy study (P302) evaluating mRNA-1010 conducted in the Northern Hemisphere. The P302 study failed to meet the statistical threshold needed to declare early success. Based on these analyses of data, management has decided to add an update to mRNA-1010 to improve immunogenicity against the influenza B strains. Following this immunogenicity update, Moderna plans to start a phase III confirmatory study on the candidate by the end of this month.
Investors could expect an update on the regulatory pathway for Moderna’s RSV vaccine mRNA-1345. Earlier this month, management announced that a regulatory application seeking approval of its RSV vaccine is on track for submission to the FDA before the end of second-quarter 2023.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Moderna in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Moderna’s Earnings ESP is +6.83% as the Most Accurate Estimate of loss of $1.65 is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.77. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Moderna has a Zacks Rank #3, currently. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Amarin Corporation (AMRN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +100.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Amarin’s stock has gained 5.0% in the year-to-date period. Amarin beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing the mark on the other two occasions. The company has delivered a negative earnings surprise of 14.29%, on average. Amarin will report its first-quarter results on May 3, before the opening bell.
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +51.77% and a Zacks Rank #3.
In the year so far, CRISPR Therapeutics’ shares have risen 20.8%. CRISPR Therapeutics beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing the mark on the other two occasions. CRISPR Therapeutics has delivered an earnings surprise of 3.19%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.