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Shopify (SHOP) Set to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2023 results on May 4.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.44 billion, suggesting growth of 19.39% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 4 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days. Shopify reported earnings of 2 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

The company’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and beat the same in the remaining two quarters, delivering a negative earnings surprise of 67.86%, on average.

Shopify Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Shopify Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Shopify Inc. price-eps-surprise | Shopify Inc. Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.

Factors to Note

Shopify’s first-quarter 2023 results are expected to reflect the adverse effects of a challenging macro environment, raging inflation and higher interest expenses. Cautious consumer spending is expected to have hurt top-line growth.

The company’s margin expansion has been facing challenges from higher investments in product development, as well as fulfillment platforms and an unfavorable mix. The trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.

Nevertheless, Shopify’s investments in developing the best products for modern e-commerce are expected to have helped it to expand its merchant base, thereby driving top-line growth in the to-be-reported quarter.

In the last reported quarter, Monthly Recurring Revenues (MRR) were up 7% year over year, reaching $109.5 million as new merchants joined the platform and the number of retail locations using POS Pro increased.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MRR is pegged at $112 million, indicating 6.7% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

Meanwhile, the continued adoption of Shopify products, such as Shop Pay, Shop Pay Installments and Shopify Balance, is likely to have driven the company’s top line.

Solutions like Shopify Audiences, Shopify Collabs, POSGo, Tap to Pay, integrated Twitter Shopping and YouTube channels are expected to have strengthened relationships with buyers.

Shopify’s Point-of-Sale Pro solution has been gaining traction among leading retailers and top-tier brands. The company’s initiatives to modernize the offline retail experience with the addition of Tap to Pay on iPhone and Google Local Inventory have been noteworthy.

In the fourth quarter, Plus merchants accounted for roughly 27% of all Point-of-Sale Pro sales, up 12% year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GMV is pegged at $47.40 billion, indicating 9.7% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

What Our Model Says

According to the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Shopify has an Earnings ESP of -4.19% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases:

DigitalOcean (DOCN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.30% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

DigitalOcean shares have gained 24.5% year to date. DOCN is set to report its first-quarter 2023 results on May 9.

BILL Holdings (BILL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.89% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.

BILL shares have declined 28.9% year to date. BILL is set to report its third-quarter fiscal 2023 results on May 4.

Blink Charging (BLNK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +26.67% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Blink shares have declined 36.1% in the year-to-date period. BLNK is set to report its first-quarter 2023 results on May 9.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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