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These 2 Consumer Discretionary Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar
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Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Royal Caribbean?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Royal Caribbean (RCL - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at -$0.70 a share, just one day from its upcoming earnings release on May 4, 2023.
Royal Caribbean's Earnings ESP sits at +1.64%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the -$0.70 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$0.71. RCL is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
RCL is one of just a large database of Consumer Discretionary stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Playa Hotels & Resorts (PLYA - Free Report) .
Slated to report earnings on May 4, 2023, Playa Hotels & Resorts holds a #1 (Strong Buy) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $0.43 a share one day from its next quarterly update.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Playa Hotels & Resorts is $0.31, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +40.22%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, RCL and PLYA could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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These 2 Consumer Discretionary Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar
Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Royal Caribbean?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Royal Caribbean (RCL - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at -$0.70 a share, just one day from its upcoming earnings release on May 4, 2023.
Royal Caribbean's Earnings ESP sits at +1.64%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the -$0.70 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$0.71. RCL is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
RCL is one of just a large database of Consumer Discretionary stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Playa Hotels & Resorts (PLYA - Free Report) .
Slated to report earnings on May 4, 2023, Playa Hotels & Resorts holds a #1 (Strong Buy) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $0.43 a share one day from its next quarterly update.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Playa Hotels & Resorts is $0.31, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +40.22%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, RCL and PLYA could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>