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ETF Areas to Benefit/Lose from Cooling U.S. inflation
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The annual inflation rate in the United States dropped to 4.9% in April 2023, the lowest since April 2021, and below market forecasts of 5%, but following a 0.1% increase in March. The CPI data showed that inflation is showing signs of cooling down after reaching a 40-year high of 6% in February 2023. The main drivers of the slowdown were slower growth in food prices, shelter costs, energy costs and prices for used cars and trucks.
The cooling inflation is welcome news for the Federal Reserve, which has been facing pressure to tighten its monetary policy amid rising inflation expectations and fears of overheating. Sky-high inflation was largely driven by supply chain disruptions and pent-up demand due to the pandemic.
How Does Inflation Affect Different Sectors?
Inflation can have different impacts on different sectors of the economy, depending on their sensitivity to price changes, input costs, and demand elasticity. Generally speaking, sectors that have higher pricing power, lower cost pressures, and more resilient demand tend to perform better in an inflationary environment than those that have lower pricing power, higher cost pressures, and more elastic demand.
Likely Winners
Some of the sectors that are expected to benefit from cooling inflation.
Why Lower Inflation is Good for Overall Stocks
Lower inflation means that the Federal Reserve may be less aggressive in raising interest, which could support the economic recovery and boost consumer spending. Higher interest rates tend to weigh on stock valuations by increasing borrowing costs and reducing future earnings expectations. Investors can bet on iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT - Free Report) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY - Free Report) .
Consumer ETFs: A Good Bet
Lower inflation also helps preserve the purchasing power of consumers and investors, which is crucial for long-term growth. According to Bank of America, some stocks have historically performed better than others when inflation is low or falling.
These include companies that have high profit margins, low debt levels, strong pricing power and exposure to secular growth trends. Some examples of these stocks are Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY), Ross Stores Inc. (ROST), Kroger Co. (KR), Ball Corp. (BALL), as quoted on USANews.com.
Most of these stocks have exposure to retail ETFs like SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT - Free Report) and VanEck Retail ETF (RTH - Free Report) . Plus, increasing consumers’ purchasing power should help discretionary ETFs.
Tech Stocks to Soar
Tech stocks and ETFs faced a lot of pressure amid high inflation as the Fed raised rates. Growth sectors and technology tend to lag behind in a rising rate environment. However, with inflation showing signs of easing, the Fed is less likely to increase rates faster or even pause. This would benefit tech stocks as the segment has seen a significant correction in its valuation in the past year. Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK - Free Report) is a likely winning choice here.
Homebuilding: Another Winner
Homebuilders could benefit from a lower rate and a softer housing price inflation. This is another sector that has faced a lot of challenges for a long time. A more moderate inflation and its economic implications could be favorable for the sector. Related stocks like Home Depot Inc. (HD), Lowe's Cos. Inc. (LOW) and NVR Inc. (NVR) – these stocks are likely to perform better in a low-inflation environment, according to the Bank of America, as quoted on USANews.com. Investors can consider iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB - Free Report) and Hoya Capital Housing ETF (HOMZ - Free Report) .
Likely Losers
What About Gold and Commodities
Gold is one of the oldest hedges against inflation, as it tends to retain its value over time and act as a store of wealth. Gold has seen an average annual gain of 9.48% (per a Forbes article) over the 20 years between September 2001 and September 2021. With inflation easing and stocks rallying, gold may lose its luster.
Some popular gold ETFs are SPDR Gold Trust (GLD - Free Report) , iShares Gold Trust (IAU - Free Report) , VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX - Free Report) and VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ). These ETFs track the price of gold bullion or the performance of gold mining companies, which can offer leverage to the metal's movements.
Commodities are another asset class that can benefit from inflation. Hence, with falling inflation, commodity trading may also see a slump. Some popular commodity ETFs are Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC - Free Report) and iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG).
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ETF Areas to Benefit/Lose from Cooling U.S. inflation
The annual inflation rate in the United States dropped to 4.9% in April 2023, the lowest since April 2021, and below market forecasts of 5%, but following a 0.1% increase in March. The CPI data showed that inflation is showing signs of cooling down after reaching a 40-year high of 6% in February 2023. The main drivers of the slowdown were slower growth in food prices, shelter costs, energy costs and prices for used cars and trucks.
The cooling inflation is welcome news for the Federal Reserve, which has been facing pressure to tighten its monetary policy amid rising inflation expectations and fears of overheating. Sky-high inflation was largely driven by supply chain disruptions and pent-up demand due to the pandemic.
How Does Inflation Affect Different Sectors?
Inflation can have different impacts on different sectors of the economy, depending on their sensitivity to price changes, input costs, and demand elasticity. Generally speaking, sectors that have higher pricing power, lower cost pressures, and more resilient demand tend to perform better in an inflationary environment than those that have lower pricing power, higher cost pressures, and more elastic demand.
Likely Winners
Some of the sectors that are expected to benefit from cooling inflation.
Why Lower Inflation is Good for Overall Stocks
Lower inflation means that the Federal Reserve may be less aggressive in raising interest, which could support the economic recovery and boost consumer spending. Higher interest rates tend to weigh on stock valuations by increasing borrowing costs and reducing future earnings expectations. Investors can bet on iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT - Free Report) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY - Free Report) .
Consumer ETFs: A Good Bet
Lower inflation also helps preserve the purchasing power of consumers and investors, which is crucial for long-term growth. According to Bank of America, some stocks have historically performed better than others when inflation is low or falling.
These include companies that have high profit margins, low debt levels, strong pricing power and exposure to secular growth trends. Some examples of these stocks are Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY), Ross Stores Inc. (ROST), Kroger Co. (KR), Ball Corp. (BALL), as quoted on USANews.com.
Most of these stocks have exposure to retail ETFs like SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT - Free Report) and VanEck Retail ETF (RTH - Free Report) . Plus, increasing consumers’ purchasing power should help discretionary ETFs.
Tech Stocks to Soar
Tech stocks and ETFs faced a lot of pressure amid high inflation as the Fed raised rates. Growth sectors and technology tend to lag behind in a rising rate environment. However, with inflation showing signs of easing, the Fed is less likely to increase rates faster or even pause. This would benefit tech stocks as the segment has seen a significant correction in its valuation in the past year. Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK - Free Report) is a likely winning choice here.
Homebuilding: Another Winner
Homebuilders could benefit from a lower rate and a softer housing price inflation. This is another sector that has faced a lot of challenges for a long time. A more moderate inflation and its economic implications could be favorable for the sector. Related stocks like Home Depot Inc. (HD), Lowe's Cos. Inc. (LOW) and NVR Inc. (NVR) – these stocks are likely to perform better in a low-inflation environment, according to the Bank of America, as quoted on USANews.com. Investors can consider iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB - Free Report) and Hoya Capital Housing ETF (HOMZ - Free Report) .
Likely Losers
What About Gold and Commodities
Gold is one of the oldest hedges against inflation, as it tends to retain its value over time and act as a store of wealth. Gold has seen an average annual gain of 9.48% (per a Forbes article) over the 20 years between September 2001 and September 2021. With inflation easing and stocks rallying, gold may lose its luster.
Some popular gold ETFs are SPDR Gold Trust (GLD - Free Report) , iShares Gold Trust (IAU - Free Report) , VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX - Free Report) and VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ). These ETFs track the price of gold bullion or the performance of gold mining companies, which can offer leverage to the metal's movements.
Commodities are another asset class that can benefit from inflation. Hence, with falling inflation, commodity trading may also see a slump. Some popular commodity ETFs are Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC - Free Report) and iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG).