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Housing Starts In-Line; Target (TGT), TJX Mixed in Q1

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Wednesday, May 17th, 2023

We’re playing a game of ping-pong of sorts in the markets this week so far: up Monday, down Tuesday, and back in the green in today’s pre-market. Indices had been flat for most of the past month until about a week ago, when we started seeing healthier gains in the tech-heavy Nasdaq while the other major indices slid into the red. This morning, the Dow is currently +130 points, the S&P 500 is +10 and the Nasdaq +25.

Housing Starts for the month of April are out this morning, matching expectations exactly on headline: 1.40 million. This turns to a month-over-month improvement from the downwardly revised 1.37 million. For Building Permits — understood as something of a proxy for future Starts — underperformed estimates slightly: 1.42 million versus 1.43 million expected, and down from the upwardly revised 1.44 million the previous month.

The biggest drop was in multi-family housing, falling -7.7%, likely on continued oversupply in a very tight housing market overall. Permits for single-family housing were up +3.1%, though starts were only +1.6%. Analysts, after seeing the robust Homebuilders Confidence Index yesterday, had perhaps been looking for stronger numbers in this morning’s report, but again: short supply, likely having something to do with mortgage issues pertaining to strains in regional banks currently, is the biggest culprit. New home listings are down -20% year over year.

Target (TGT - Free Report) posted mixed results in its Q1 earnings report this morning, with earnings of $2.05 per share beating estimates by +17.8% (though still below the $2.19 per share reported in the year-ago quarter), though revenues for the quarter marginally missed the Zacks consensus to $25.32 billion. Current-quarter guidance is more cautious, however, on trends pertaining to a less-exuberant consumer in the face of what may be a recession sometime in the second half of the year. Shares are up +0.7% on the news, bring total yearly gains thus far to around +6%. For more on TGT’s earnings, click here.

The TJX Companies (TJX - Free Report) also released its Q1 results ahead of today’s open, and, like Target, beating on the bottom line while missing slightly on the top. Earnings of 76 cents per share amounted to a positive surprise of 5 cents per share (and above the 68 cents per share a year ago), while quarterly sales of $11.78 billion were short of expectations by -0.34% (though up from $11.41 billion in the quarter a year ago). Shares are up +0.37% in today’s pre-market, swinging back to positive territory year to date. For more on TJX’s earnings, click here.

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