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Market Eagerly Awaits Fed Minutes

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We have a couple meaningful events on the docket today, though neither is causing market participants to brace for impact. The recorded minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting earlier this month are expected at 2pm today, and after the market close, NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) reports Q1 earnings. This is a stick that is already +114% year to date.

Debt ceiling talks will reportedly continue today, even as yesterday’s meeting concluded with the progressive and conservative wings far apart on an agreement. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said talks were “still productive,” though that’s not much to hang one’s hat on. Treasury Secretary and ex-Fed Chair Janet Yellen called a penciled-in deadline for a week from today to reach a deal before the U.S. threatens to default on its debts. Until 2011 — the last time we had a Republican-led House and a Democratic-led White House — this had never happened in this country.

Yesterday, we saw unexpected strength in S&P flash Services and Manufacturing PMI, with both notably above expectations and further above the 50-level connoting growth from loss. There aren’t too many still-strong economic metrics (aside from employment, which is also showing signs of erosion) these days, so these figures are both somewhat comforting and somewhat puzzling.

Department-store retailer Kohl’s (KSS - Free Report) reported Q1 earnings ahead of today’s opening bell, posting a big earnings beat of +130%: earnings of +13 cents per share is a big swing from the -44 cents expected, on revenues of $3.57 billion, +1.5% higher than the Zacks consensus $3.52 billion. This is a nice bounce-back from the previous quarter’s -342% negative earnings surprise. Shares are up +15% in early market trading, making up a good share of the -21.5% year to date.

Markets are so far down for the week, and today’s pre-market — Kohl’s notwithstanding — aren’t helping matters. Currently, the Dow is -100 points, the Nasdaq is -75 and the S&P 500 is -20. This recent downturn has brought all major indices except the Nasdaq to negative returns over the past month. Year to date, these indices remain in positive territory aside from the blue-chip Dow, -0.76% from the first of the year.


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