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Why Is Atmos (ATO) Down 5% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Atmos Energy (ATO - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Atmos due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Atmos Energy Q2 Earnings Beat, Revenues Lag Estimates

Atmos Energy Corporation posted second-quarter fiscal 2023 earnings of $2.48 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.47 by 0.4%. The bottom line improved by 4.6% from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of $2.37 per share.

The year-over-year increase in earnings was due to a new rate implemented in both segments, increased weather and consumption and customer growth in its distribution segment. These positives were partially offset by higher operation and maintenance expenses and higher depreciation and property tax expenses due to increased capital investments.

Revenues

Total revenues of $1,541 million lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,855 million by 16.9%. The top line decreased 6.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure of $1,649.8 million.

Segment Revenues

Distribution: Revenues from the segment in fiscal second-quarter 2023 were $1,500.2 million, a 6.9% decline from $1,610.6 million in the year-ago quarter.

Pipeline and Storage: Revenues from the segment were $184.4 million, a 12.6% increase from $163.8 million in the year-ago quarter.

Highlights of the Release

The purchased gas cost for fiscal second-quarter 2023 was $666.2 million, down 23.5% from the year-ago quarter. Operation and maintenance expenses were reported at $194.7 million, up 19.2% from the year-ago quarter.

The fiscal second-quarter 2023 results reported operating income of $422.6 million, up 9.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Atmos Energy incurred interest expenses of $37.4 million, up 29.4% from the year-ago quarter.

Financial Highlights

As of Mar 31, 2023, Atmos Energy reported a strong balance sheet with available liquidity of approximately $3.3 billion.

As of Mar 31, 2023, ATO had cash and cash equivalents of $95.2 million compared with $51.6 million as of Sep 30, 2022. As of Mar 31, 2023, long-term debt was $6,553.1 million compared with $5,760.7 million as of Sep 20, 2022.

Net cash flow provided by operating activities in fiscal first half of 2023 was $2,892.7 million compared with $640.5 million in the year-ago period.

Capital expenditures were reported at $795.7 million for the first half of 2023, with nearly 85% of the amount being related to system safety and reliability investments.

Guidance

Atmos Energy narrowed its fiscal 2023 earnings guidance in the range of $6.00-$6.10 per share from $5.90-$6.10 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2023 earnings of $6.00 per share is lower than $6.05, the midpoint of the guided range.

ATO reiterated its fiscal 2023 capital expenditures, which will total to nearly $2.7 billion.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Atmos has a strong Growth Score of A, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision has been net zero. It comes with little surprise Atmos has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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