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Want Better Returns? Don?t Ignore These 2 Consumer Staples Stocks Set to Beat Earnings

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Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider McCormick?

The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. McCormick (MKC - Free Report) holds a #2 (Buy) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.59 a share six days away from its upcoming earnings release on June 29, 2023.

By taking the percentage difference between the $0.59 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.57 Zacks Consensus Estimate, McCormick has an Earnings ESP of +4.43%. Investors should also know that MKC is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

MKC is one of just a large database of Consumer Staples stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Kraft Heinz (KHC - Free Report) .

Kraft Heinz, which is readying to report earnings on July 26, 2023, sits at a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.77 a share, and KHC is 33 days out from its next earnings report.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kraft Heinz is $0.75, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +2.84%.

MKC and KHC's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:


McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) - free report >>

Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) - free report >>

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