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Markets on Friday closed at or near year-to-date highs, on the final trading day of the second quarter and first half of the year. Unsurprisingly, we kick off a new holiday-shortened week — tomorrow markets are closed in observance of Independence Day, while today the closing bell rings at an early 1pm ET — a bit more tepid: the Dow is -50 points while the Nasdaq hovers around 0; the S&P is -5 points but the small-cap Russell 2000 is +0.01%.
We also start a bit slowly on the economic report front: ahead of the open we’re quiet, but later this morning we expect S&P PMI and ISM Manufacturing figures for June, with the S&P print expected to come in-line with the previous month, +46.3, while the ISM is predicted to climb to 47.3% from 46.9% reported last time around. Both metrics are still sub-50, indicating the demarcation point between growth and loss. The S&P report has spent seven of the last eight months under 50, while the ISM is working on a seven-month streak below that number.
Construction Spending for May will also report after today’s open. Expectations here are for a lighter load having been carried — the +0.5% consensus is less than half the +1.2% brought forth a month ago. Perhaps stronger-than-expected numbers in new housing starts, etc. last week will tick this construction figure higher today, but we’ll have to wait to see for sure. The average construction spending print so far this year is +0.8%.
This also happens to be Jobs Week: this first full week of the new month brings us private-sector payrolls from Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) on Wednesday and the Employment Situation report on Friday from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This last measure will be interesting to see, coming as it will following a surprisingly high +339K new jobs created for May in last month’s report. Beyond this, we’ll also get new JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) numbers and Job Quits for May, and of course weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims.
So considering the shortened trading day tomorrow and our break on Tuesday, this should be a pretty eventful week. We have until four weeks from Wednesday to show the Fed evidence that the economy is slowing enough that further interest rate increases are unnecessary, and there are few metrics unto themselves that carry the potential impact to do such a thing than employment reports. Thus, we should have a good idea where the Fed’s collective mind is at by this time Friday morning.
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Market Awaits PMI and ISM Manufacturing Numbers
Markets on Friday closed at or near year-to-date highs, on the final trading day of the second quarter and first half of the year. Unsurprisingly, we kick off a new holiday-shortened week — tomorrow markets are closed in observance of Independence Day, while today the closing bell rings at an early 1pm ET — a bit more tepid: the Dow is -50 points while the Nasdaq hovers around 0; the S&P is -5 points but the small-cap Russell 2000 is +0.01%.
We also start a bit slowly on the economic report front: ahead of the open we’re quiet, but later this morning we expect S&P PMI and ISM Manufacturing figures for June, with the S&P print expected to come in-line with the previous month, +46.3, while the ISM is predicted to climb to 47.3% from 46.9% reported last time around. Both metrics are still sub-50, indicating the demarcation point between growth and loss. The S&P report has spent seven of the last eight months under 50, while the ISM is working on a seven-month streak below that number.
Construction Spending for May will also report after today’s open. Expectations here are for a lighter load having been carried — the +0.5% consensus is less than half the +1.2% brought forth a month ago. Perhaps stronger-than-expected numbers in new housing starts, etc. last week will tick this construction figure higher today, but we’ll have to wait to see for sure. The average construction spending print so far this year is +0.8%.
This also happens to be Jobs Week: this first full week of the new month brings us private-sector payrolls from Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) on Wednesday and the Employment Situation report on Friday from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This last measure will be interesting to see, coming as it will following a surprisingly high +339K new jobs created for May in last month’s report. Beyond this, we’ll also get new JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) numbers and Job Quits for May, and of course weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims.
So considering the shortened trading day tomorrow and our break on Tuesday, this should be a pretty eventful week. We have until four weeks from Wednesday to show the Fed evidence that the economy is slowing enough that further interest rate increases are unnecessary, and there are few metrics unto themselves that carry the potential impact to do such a thing than employment reports. Thus, we should have a good idea where the Fed’s collective mind is at by this time Friday morning.