Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Crocs?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Crocs (CROX Quick QuoteCROX - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $2.96 a share, just 29 days from its upcoming earnings release on August 3, 2023.

Crocs' Earnings ESP sits at +0.29%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $2.96 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.95. CROX is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

CROX is just one of a large group of Consumer Discretionary stocks with a positive ESP figure. MGM Resorts (MGM Quick QuoteMGM - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

MGM Resorts is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on August 2, 2023. MGM's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.70 a share 28 days from its next earnings release.

MGM Resorts' Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +39.65% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.50.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, CROX and MGM could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>