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Markets Break 3-Day Losing Streak

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Major market indices all closed in the green today, at or near session highs at the bell and snapping a three-day losing streak. The Dow gained +211 points, +0.63%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were closer to unched — +0.24% and +0.18%, respectively — and the small-cap Russell 2000 from Friday’s lower close to gain +1.64% in today’s session. So far in July we’ve given back some of our June gains, but with no major market catalysts throughout the day, we’ll take a random up-day.

Wholesale Inventories for May were out this morning: flat month over month following a negative April (-0.1%) and March (-0.3%), while subtracting volatile monthly auto inventories brings this figure to -0.1% in May. Wholesale motor vehicles gained +1.1% for the month, up from +0.3% in April. Elsewhere, furniture, clothing farm products and oil wholesale inventories all came in lower. Year over year wholesale inventories posted +3.7%.

Consumer Credit, also for May, has issued its report after the close of regular trading today, with a big move lower on headline and in the previous month’s revision: an increase of $7.25 billion was well below expectations for $20.25 billion — the smallest month gain since November 2020. Revolving credit (credit cards, etc.) gained +8.4% year over year, also below estimates. Non-revolving credit (student loans, etc.) slipped by -0.4% over the same time period. The previous month’s headline dropped from $23 billion originally reported to $20.3 billion today.

We’ll stay on the slow side for market reportage through tomorrow, when we’ll get a look at the June National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Optimism Index. Expectations here are for a slight bump to 90.9 from 89.4 reported a month ago. But this is small potatoes compared to last week’s jobs numbers on Thursday and Friday, and to this coming Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Of course, all data helps fill in gaps in our knowledge across our vast, disparate economy, but some numbers are more important than others.

For now, we can afford to sit tight between high-caliber economic prints -- especially when conditions are favorable, as they are today. Ultimately, we’re going through an adjustment period that’s telling us how strong our present economy is compared to expectations and results from our recalled recent past. The good news is we’re healthier than almost anyone predicted we’d be halfway through this year. The bad news is that, in our current environment, good news is often considered bad news.

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