Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider CVR Energy?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. CVR Energy (CVI Quick QuoteCVI - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.20 a share, just 27 days from its upcoming earnings release on August 7, 2023.

By taking the percentage difference between the $1.20 Most Accurate Estimate and the $1.10 Zacks Consensus Estimate, CVR Energy has an Earnings ESP of +9.09%. Investors should also know that CVI is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

CVI is part of a big group of Oils and Energy stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Kinder Morgan (KMI Quick QuoteKMI - Free Report) as well.

Slated to report earnings on July 19, 2023, Kinder Morgan holds a #2 (Buy) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $0.27 a share eight days from its next quarterly update.

For Kinder Morgan, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.24 is +11.18%.

CVI and KMI's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>