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Phillips 66 (PSX) to Post Q2 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Phillips 66 (PSX - Free Report) is set to report second-quarter 2023 results on Aug 2, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the leading refiner’s adjusted earnings per share of $4.21 comfortably beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.58 on stronger refining margins worldwide.

Phillips 66 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering an earnings surprise of 13.5%, on average.

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the announcement.

Phillips 66 Price and EPS Surprise

Phillips 66 Price and EPS Surprise

Phillips 66 price-eps-surprise | Phillips 66 Quote

Estimate Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share of $3.54 has witnessed seven downward revisions over the past 30 days. The estimated figure suggests a decline of 47.7% from the prior-year reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s revenues of $32.1 billion indicates a 34.9% decrease from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Note

Phillips 66 is one of the most diversified energy players, having presence in refining, midstream, chemicals and marketing. However, worries about an economic slowdown and recession are likely to have hurt fuel demand in the June quarter, thereby affecting refining operations. We expect adjusted EBITDA from PSX’s refining operations at $2,108.8 million, suggesting a year-over-year decrease of 38.5%.

Phillips 66’s midstream business, by its very nature, is less exposed to commodity price volatility and is more stable than other operations. However, we project adjusted EBITDA from midstream operations at $638.8 million, suggesting a decline of 4.7% year over year. Since crude price was lower in the June quarter than the prior-year period, production of crude might have fallen, in turn, reducing the demand for PSX’s midstream business.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Phillips 66 this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. As you can see, that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Phillips 66 has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Phillips 66 currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies from the Energy space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.20% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company is scheduled to release second-quarter earnings on Aug 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MUSA’s earnings is pegged at $6.11 per share, suggesting a decline from the prior-year reported figure.

Cactus, Inc. (WHD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.97% and a Zacks #3 at present.

Cactus is scheduled to release second-quarter results on Aug 7. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WHD’s earnings is pegged at 69 cents per share, indicating an improvement from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Southwestern Energy Company (SWN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.21% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player at present.

Southwestern is scheduled to release second-quarter results on Aug 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SWN’s earnings is pegged at 7 cents per share, suggesting a decline from the prior-year reported figure.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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