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Amgen (AMGN) to Report Q2 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

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Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) will report second-quarter 2023 results on Aug 3, after market close. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 3.65%.

Factors to Consider

Amgen’s product sales are expected to have risen as prescription trends and demand for most of its medicines are expected to have improved to pre-pandemic levels despite the current macroeconomic challenges.

In the second quarter, volume growth from Amgen’s key drugs like Evenity, Repatha and Prolia is expected to have driven top-line growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prolia, Repatha, and Evenity sales are pegged at $974 million, $382 million and $262.0 million, respectively.

Our estimates for Prolia, Repatha and Evenity sales are pegged at $962.6 million, $366.2 million, and $242.5 million, respectively.

In addition, newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are expected to have contributed to top-line growth.

Like the first quarter of 2023, sales of Otezla in the United States are expected to have been hurt by free drug programs launched by new competitors. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Otezla is $587.0 million, while our estimate is $590.3 million.

Also, increasing branded and generic competition for its legacy products like Enbrel, Aranesp, Epogen, Neupogen, Neulasta and Sensipar are likely to have hurt the top line.

Regarding Enbrel, Amgen expects low single-digit volume growth. The decline in prices is expected to have reduced in the second quarter, while inventory levels are expected to have recovered from first-quarter levels. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbrel is $868.0 million, while our estimate is $797.3 million.

Also, pricing pressure and increased competition are likely to have continued to hurt sales of some drugs as well as biosimilar products like Kanjinti and Mvasi. Sales of relatively newer medicine, Lumakras, may have declined sequentially, due to lower net selling price. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lumakras/Lumykras is $88.0 million, while our estimate is $89.0 million.

Second-quarter sales of Amjevita, Amgen’s biosimilar version of AbbVie’s (ABBV - Free Report) drug Humira, are expected to have been lower than first-quarter sales of $164 million. This is because most of U.S. Amjevita sales in the first quarter stemmed from inventory build. Amgen launched Amjevita in the United States at a 55% lower list price than the current price set by AbbVie for Humira in February. Amgen already markets a biosimilar of AbbVie’s Humira, Amgevita, in the United States.

Update on Horizon Therapeutics’ Acquisition

In May, the Federal Trade Commission (“FTC”) filed a lawsuit in Federal Court to halt Amgen's proposed $28 billion acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics .

Per the FTC, if the acquisition is allowed to go through, a large-cap giant like Amgen could leverage its position with insurance companies and pharmacy benefit managers to entrench the monopoly positions for two of Horizon's key products — Tepezza (approved for treating thyroid eye disease) and Krystexxa (approved for treating chronic refractory gout). Per the agency, the drugs currently face little to no competition in the market and are sold at very high prices to patients.

Earnings Surprise History

This large biotech’s performance has been strong, with earnings beating estimates in all the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.17%, on average.

Amgen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Amgen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Amgen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Amgen Inc. Quote

Amgen’s stock has declined 10% this year so far compared with a decrease of 11.2% for the industry.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Amgen this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Amgen’s Earnings ESP -1.41% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.44 per share is higher than the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.37 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Amgen has a Zacks Rank #3.

Stock to Consider

A large drug stock that has the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around is Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) . It has an Earnings ESP of +4.63% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Novo Nordisk’s stock has risen 16.6% so far this year. Novo Nordisk topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. It has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.35%, on average. NVO is scheduled to release its second-quarter results on Aug 10.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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