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Seagate (STX) Up 4.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Seagate (STX - Free Report) . Shares have added about 4.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Seagate due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Seagate Q4 Loss Narrower Than Expected

Seagate reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 non-GAAP loss of 18 cents per share, which was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 23 cents. The company reported non-GAAP earnings of $1.59 in the year-ago quarter.

Management expected non-GAAP earnings per share for the fiscal fourth quarter to be 20 cents per share (+/- 20 cents).

Non-GAAP revenues of $1.602 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3%. The figure declined 39% on a year-over-year basis and fell 14% sequentially. Management projected revenues of $1.7 billion (+/- $150 million) for the quarter under review.

Seagate noted that bumpy economic recovery in China, cautious enterprise spending and continued inventory digestion by clients affected the top-line performance. The company expects these trends to persist through the first half of fiscal 2024. Seagate remains on track to ramp up volume of HAMR 30+ TB drives in early calendar-year 2024.

Exabyte Shipments in Detail

In the reported quarter, Seagate shipped 91.2 exabytes of HDD storage. This marked a decline of 41% on a year-over-year basis and 23% sequentially. Average mass capacity decreased 18% year over year and 22% sequentially to 6.4 TB.

The company shipped 75.2 exabytes for the mass-capacity storage market (including nearline, video and image applications and network-attached storage). This recorded a year-over-year and sequential plunge of 46% and 28%, respectively, in exabytes shipments. Average mass capacity per drive fell sequentially to 9.6 TB from 13 TB.

In the nearline market, it shipped 54.7 exabytes of HDD, down 54% year over year and 37% sequentially.

Seagate shipped 16 exabytes for the legacy market (which includes mission-critical notebooks, desktops, gaming consoles, digital video recorders or DVR and external consumer devices), down 1% year over year in exabyte shipments but up 9% sequentially. Average capacity improved sequentially by 10% to 2.5 TB.

Revenues by Product Group

Total revenues for HDD (86.5% of revenues) tumbled 43% year over year to $1.385 billion in the reported quarter. On a sequential basis, revenues were down 14%.

Non-HDD segment’s revenues (13.5%) including enterprise data solutions, cloud systems and solid-state drives were $218 million, unchanged on a year-over-year basis. However, this figure decreased 15% sequentially owing to lower enterprise systems volume.

Margin Details

Non-GAAP gross margin fell to 19.5% compared with the prior-year quarter’s 29.3%. Non-GAAP operating expenses were down 26% on a year-over-year basis to $258 million mostly due to cost cutting efforts and lower variable compensation.

Non-GAAP income from operations totaled $55 million, down from $422 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Non-GAAP operating margin dipped to 3.4% compared with the year-ago quarter’s 16.1%.

Balance Sheet and Cash Flow

As of Jun 30, 2023, cash and cash equivalents were $786 million compared with $766 million as of Apr 1, 2023.

As of Jun 30, 2023, long-term debt (including the current portion) was $5.451 billion compared with $5.958 billion as of Apr 1, 2023.

Cash flow from operations was $218 million compared with $228 million reported in the previous quarter. Free cash flow amounted to $168 million compared with $174 million in the previous quarter.

The company paid $145 million as dividends in the fiscal fourth quarter. It exited the quarter with 207 million shares outstanding.

Outlook

Management anticipates first-quarter fiscal 2024 revenues to be $1.55 billion (+/- $150 million). Non-GAAP loss for the fiscal first quarter is expected to be 16 cents per share (+/- 20 cents).

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -84.15% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Seagate has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Seagate has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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