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Why Is Chipotle (CMG) Down 0.6% Since Last Earnings Report?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Chipotle due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Chipotle Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Lag
Chipotle released mixed second-quarter 2023 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. The top and the bottom line increased on a year-over-year basis.
Q2 Earnings & Revenue Discussion
In the quarter under review, Chipotle reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $12.65, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.25. The bottom line increased 36% from the $9.30 reported in the year-ago quarter.
Quarterly revenues of $2,514.8 million missed the consensus mark of $2,524 million. The top line increased 13.6% on a year-over-year basis. The upside can primarily be attributed to strong comparable restaurant sales growth and new restaurant openings. In the quarter under review, Chipotle opened 47 new restaurants.
Digital sales contributed 38% to total food and beverage revenues.
During the second quarter, comparable restaurant sales increased 7.4% year over year compared with 10.9% growth reported in the previous quarter.
Costs, Operating Highlights & Net Income
During second-quarter 2023, food, beverage and packaging costs, as a percentage of revenues, came in at 29.4%, down 100 basis points (bps) year over year. The cost improvement was backed by menu price increases and lower avocado prices. This was partially offset by higher costs in beef, tortillas, dairy, salsa, beans and rice.
During the reported quarter, the restaurant-level operating margin came in at 27.5%, up from 25.2% reported in the year-ago quarter. The uptick was primarily backed by sales leverage benefits and lower avocado prices. However, this was partially offset by wage inflation and higher food costs.
Adjusted net income in the reported quarter amounted to $350.9 million compared with $261.2 reported million in the prior-year quarter.
Balance Sheet
As of Jun 30, 2023, the company reported cash and cash equivalent of $504.9 million compared with $409.7 million as of Mar 31, 2023.
Inventory totaled $36 million as of Jun 30, 2023, compared with $34.6 million as of Mar 31, 2023. Goodwill (as a percentage of total assets) came in at 0.3% at the end of the second quarter of 2023.
During the second quarter, the company repurchased $87.6 million worth of stock at an average price of $1,937.35. As of Jun 30, the company had approximately $294.7 million available for the buyback program.
2023 Outlook
For third-quarter 2023, the company expects comps growth in the low to mid-single digit range.
For 2023, the company expects comps growth in the mid to high-single digit range. The company expects to open 255-285 new restaurants in 2023. It expects a 2023 tax rate in the range of 25-27%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -8.4% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Chipotle has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Chipotle has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Why Is Chipotle (CMG) Down 0.6% Since Last Earnings Report?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Chipotle due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Chipotle Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Lag
Chipotle released mixed second-quarter 2023 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. The top and the bottom line increased on a year-over-year basis.
Q2 Earnings & Revenue Discussion
In the quarter under review, Chipotle reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $12.65, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.25. The bottom line increased 36% from the $9.30 reported in the year-ago quarter.
Quarterly revenues of $2,514.8 million missed the consensus mark of $2,524 million. The top line increased 13.6% on a year-over-year basis. The upside can primarily be attributed to strong comparable restaurant sales growth and new restaurant openings. In the quarter under review, Chipotle opened 47 new restaurants.
Digital sales contributed 38% to total food and beverage revenues.
During the second quarter, comparable restaurant sales increased 7.4% year over year compared with 10.9% growth reported in the previous quarter.
Costs, Operating Highlights & Net Income
During second-quarter 2023, food, beverage and packaging costs, as a percentage of revenues, came in at 29.4%, down 100 basis points (bps) year over year. The cost improvement was backed by menu price increases and lower avocado prices. This was partially offset by higher costs in beef, tortillas, dairy, salsa, beans and rice.
During the reported quarter, the restaurant-level operating margin came in at 27.5%, up from 25.2% reported in the year-ago quarter. The uptick was primarily backed by sales leverage benefits and lower avocado prices. However, this was partially offset by wage inflation and higher food costs.
Adjusted net income in the reported quarter amounted to $350.9 million compared with $261.2 reported million in the prior-year quarter.
Balance Sheet
As of Jun 30, 2023, the company reported cash and cash equivalent of $504.9 million compared with $409.7 million as of Mar 31, 2023.
Inventory totaled $36 million as of Jun 30, 2023, compared with $34.6 million as of Mar 31, 2023. Goodwill (as a percentage of total assets) came in at 0.3% at the end of the second quarter of 2023.
During the second quarter, the company repurchased $87.6 million worth of stock at an average price of $1,937.35. As of Jun 30, the company had approximately $294.7 million available for the buyback program.
2023 Outlook
For third-quarter 2023, the company expects comps growth in the low to mid-single digit range.
For 2023, the company expects comps growth in the mid to high-single digit range. The company expects to open 255-285 new restaurants in 2023. It expects a 2023 tax rate in the range of 25-27%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -8.4% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Chipotle has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Chipotle has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.