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Mosaic (MOS) Down 4.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Mosaic (MOS - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 4.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mosaic due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Mosaic's Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Beat
Mosaic reported a second-quarter 2023 net income of $369 million or $1.11 per share, down from $1,035.9 million or $2.85 per share in the year-ago quarter.
Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were $1.04, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.07.
Net sales declined roughly 36.8% year over year to $3,394 million in the quarter. It surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3180.3 million. The decline in sales was primarily due to lower selling prices.
Segment Highlights
Net sales in the Potash segment were $849 million in the reported quarter, down around 47% from $1.6 billion in the prior year’s quarter. Sales volumes totaled 2.2 million tons, down 4.3%. The figure is higher than our estimate of 2.183 million tons. The segment’s gross margin decreased to $336 million from $928 million in the year-ago quarter.
The Phosphate division’s net sales were $1.3 billion, down 27.8% from $1.8 billion in the prior-year period. Sales volumes in the segment rose 11.8% year over year to 1.9 million tons, higher than our estimate of 1.823 million tons. The gross margin in the quarter was $216 million, down from $642 million.
Net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment were around $1.4 billion in the quarter, down around 39.1% year over year. Sales volume in the quarter declined 4.3% to 2.4 million tons. The gross margin in the quarter was $13 million, down from $450 million in the prior-year quarter.
Financials
At the end of the quarter, Mosaic had cash and cash equivalents of $626.1 million, down from $735.4 million as of Dec 31, 2022. Long-term debt increased to $2,423.3 million from $2,411.9 million as of Dec 31, 2022.
Net cash provided by operating activities increased roughly 32.3% year over year to $1,073 million in the reported quarter.
Outlook
The company stated it remains committed to carrying out investments with high returns with moderate capital expenditures, such as the expansion of MicroEssentials capacity at its Riverview facility, constructing a new blending and distribution center in Palmeirante, Brazil, executing the construction of a purified phosphoric acid plant for sale in North Americ, and installing a Hydrofloat flotation system at Esterhazy's K2 mill. The estimated total capital expenditures for 2023 are $1.3 to $1.4 billion.
Mosaic aims to return substantial free cash flow in 2023 to shareholders. Mosaic strives to maintain a healthy balance sheet. In the second quarter, the company closed on a $700 million 10-year term credit facility under the Farm Credit System, allowing it additional flexibility to manage its capital.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -24.55% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Mosaic has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Mosaic has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Mosaic (MOS) Down 4.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Mosaic (MOS - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 4.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mosaic due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Mosaic's Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Beat
Mosaic reported a second-quarter 2023 net income of $369 million or $1.11 per share, down from $1,035.9 million or $2.85 per share in the year-ago quarter.
Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were $1.04, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.07.
Net sales declined roughly 36.8% year over year to $3,394 million in the quarter. It surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3180.3 million. The decline in sales was primarily due to lower selling prices.
Segment Highlights
Net sales in the Potash segment were $849 million in the reported quarter, down around 47% from $1.6 billion in the prior year’s quarter. Sales volumes totaled 2.2 million tons, down 4.3%. The figure is higher than our estimate of 2.183 million tons. The segment’s gross margin decreased to $336 million from $928 million in the year-ago quarter.
The Phosphate division’s net sales were $1.3 billion, down 27.8% from $1.8 billion in the prior-year period. Sales volumes in the segment rose 11.8% year over year to 1.9 million tons, higher than our estimate of 1.823 million tons. The gross margin in the quarter was $216 million, down from $642 million.
Net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment were around $1.4 billion in the quarter, down around 39.1% year over year. Sales volume in the quarter declined 4.3% to 2.4 million tons. The gross margin in the quarter was $13 million, down from $450 million in the prior-year quarter.
Financials
At the end of the quarter, Mosaic had cash and cash equivalents of $626.1 million, down from $735.4 million as of Dec 31, 2022. Long-term debt increased to $2,423.3 million from $2,411.9 million as of Dec 31, 2022.
Net cash provided by operating activities increased roughly 32.3% year over year to $1,073 million in the reported quarter.
Outlook
The company stated it remains committed to carrying out investments with high returns with moderate capital expenditures, such as the expansion of MicroEssentials capacity at its Riverview facility, constructing a new blending and distribution center in Palmeirante, Brazil, executing the construction of a purified phosphoric acid plant for sale in North Americ, and installing a Hydrofloat flotation system at Esterhazy's K2 mill. The estimated total capital expenditures for 2023 are $1.3 to $1.4 billion.
Mosaic aims to return substantial free cash flow in 2023 to shareholders. Mosaic strives to maintain a healthy balance sheet. In the second quarter, the company closed on a $700 million 10-year term credit facility under the Farm Credit System, allowing it additional flexibility to manage its capital.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -24.55% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Mosaic has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Mosaic has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.