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Phillips 66 (PSX) Up 3.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Phillips 66 (PSX - Free Report) . Shares have added about 3.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Phillips 66 due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Phillips 66 Beats on Q2 Earnings Estimates

Phillips 66 reported second-quarter 2023 adjusted earnings of $3.87 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.54. The bottom line significantly declined from $6.77 per share in the year-ago quarter.

Total quarterly revenues of $35,740 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $32,126 million. However, the top line declined from the year-ago quarter’s $49,309 million.

Better-than-expected quarterly earnings can be primarily attributed to lower expenses. The positives were partially offset by declining refining margins worldwide.

Segmental Results

Midstream:

The segment generated adjusted pre-tax quarterly earnings of $626 million, up from $258 million in the year-ago quarter. The metric also beat our estimate of $383 million. Higher contributions from transportation aided the segment.

Chemicals:

The unit recorded adjusted pre-tax earnings of $192 million, down from $273 million in the prior-year quarter.

Refining:

The segment reported adjusted pre-tax earnings of $1,148 million, down from $3,192 million in the year-ago quarter. The metric is also below our projection of $1,423.5 million. The segment was affected by lower realized margins. The negatives were partially offset by higher volumes and lower operating expenses.

The segment’s realized refining margins worldwide declined to $15.32 per barrel from the year-ago quarter’s $28.62. The same in the Central Corridor and Atlantic Basin/Europe declined to $22.62 and $10.94 per barrel from the year-ago levels of $26.72 and $30.39, respectively.

The West Coast witnessed a decline in margins from $33.31 per barrel in the year-ago quarter to $16.27 in the June-end quarter of 2023. In the Gulf Coast, the metric declined to $11.84 per barrel from $25.71 in the prior-year quarter.  

Marketing and Specialties

Pre-tax earnings declined to $644 million from $739 million in the year-ago quarter.

While realized marketing fuel margins in the United States declined to $2.88 per barrel from the year-ago quarter’s $3.24 per barrel, the same in the international markets declined to $7.28 from the year-ago level of $8.20.

Costs and Expenses

Total costs and expenses in the second quarter declined to $33,496 million from $45,203 million in the year-ago period. The metric is slightly above our projection of $26,662 million.

Financial Condition

For the reported quarter, Phillips 66 generated $955 million of net cash from operations, down from $1,783 million a year ago. The company’s capital expenditure and investments totaled $551 million. It paid out dividends of $474 million in the reported quarter.

As of Jun 30, 2023, cash and cash equivalents were $3 billion. Total debt was $19.9 billion, reflecting a consolidated debt to capitalization of 39%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 11.37% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Phillips 66 has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Phillips 66 has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Phillips 66 belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry. Another stock from the same industry, TotalEnergies SE Sponsored ADR (TTE - Free Report) , has gained 6.1% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2023.

TotalEnergies SE Sponsored ADR reported revenues of $56.27 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -24.8%. EPS of $1.99 for the same period compares with $3.75 a year ago.

For the current quarter, TotalEnergies SE Sponsored ADR is expected to post earnings of $2.48 per share, indicating a change of -35.3% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.4% over the last 30 days.

TotalEnergies SE Sponsored ADR has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of A.


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