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Casey's (CASY) Gears Up to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY - Free Report) is likely to register a top-line decline when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers on Sep 11 after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3,852 million, indicating a decline of 13.5% from the prior-year reported figure.

The bottom line of this convenience store operator is expected to have declined year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share has declined by 0.9% to $3.36 over the past 30 days, which suggests a decrease from the earnings of $4.09 reported in the year-ago period.

This Ankeny, IA-based company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.5%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 5.7%.

Key Factors to Note

Casey's price and product optimization strategies, the increased penetration of private brands and digital engagements comprising mobile apps and online ordering capabilities are commendable. The curbside pickup option and Casey’s reward program have been benefiting its overall performance.

The company has partnered with DoorDash and Uber Eats for delivery services. Casey's self-distribution model and acquisition activities bode well. These factors are likely to have boosted the company’s top line in the yet-to-be-reported quarter.

Casey’s Grocery & General Merchandise category might have contributed to the company’s top line. Our model estimate for sales for the category is pegged at $993.9 million, which suggests an increase of 7.7% from the prior-year reported figure. The consensus mark indicates a jump of 4.1% in same-store sales.

The company’s Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage category may have positively impacted total revenues. Our model estimate for sales for the category is pinned at $369.8 million, which indicates a jump of 7.6% from the prior-year reported figure. The consensus mark suggests growth of 4.1% in same-store sales.

With respect to the total gallons sold during the quarter under discussion, the Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests an increase of 3.5%. However, our model estimate for sales in the Fuel category indicates a decline of 24.1% to $2,350 million. This might have an adverse impact on the company’s top-line performance.

Rising operating expenses have been a concern for the company over the past few quarters. Casey's witnessed an increase of 6.3% in operating expenses of $521.7 million in the last reported quarter. The metric increased due to operating a greater number of stores compared with the same period last year and a rise in expenses related to same-store operations.

For the quarter under review, we expect operating expenses of about $555 million, suggesting a rise of 2.2% year-over-year. As a percentage of revenues, the metric is estimated to be 14.7%, suggesting an increase of 250 basis points year-over-year.

What Does the Zacks Model Unveil?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Casey's this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

Casey's has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.29%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

3 More Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three other companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +9.15% and sports a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third-quarter fiscal 2023 quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 42 cents, in line with the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. American Eagle Outfitters has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 43.2%, on average.

Skechers (SKX - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.41% and sports a Zacks Rank #1. The company is likely to register a bottom-line increase when it reports third-quarter 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share of 77 cents suggests a rise of 40% from the year-ago quarter.

Skechers’ top line is expected to increase year over year. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.01 billion, which indicates a rise of 6.8% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. SKX has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 39.1%, on average.

Darden Restaurants (DRI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.72% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. Darden Restaurants is expected to register a bottom-line increase when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2024. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DRI’s earnings is pegged at $1.72 per share, suggesting growth of 10.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.7 billion, which indicates growth of 10.5% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. Darden Restaurants has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.6%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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