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Markets Cool on Apple 15 News; CPI Tomorrow

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As we saw in pre-market trading this morning, indices struggled to hang onto gains produced going back to the end of last week: the Nasdaq and S&P snapped two-day winning streaks, three days for the Dow. Which is fine — without major catalysts in earnings or economic activity, senseless up-bidding would be rife for comeuppance if those major catalysts don’t come in at perfect levels.

The Dow dipped -16 points on the day, -0.05%, while the Nasdaq, led downward by Oracle’s (ORCL - Free Report) -13.5% drop today after so-so earnings yesterday afternoon, dropped -144 points, -1.04%. The S&P split the difference, -0.57%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 inched up at the close, +0.02%. Tech finished the session at the bottom of all sectors, while Energy led the way higher.

As expected, Apple (AAPL - Free Report) unveiled the new iPhone 15 series today, which include the basic phone for $799, the 15+ for $899, the 15 Pro for $999 and the Max Pro at a new price point of $1199. The iPhones will now include the standard USB-C connector, which the company had resisted for the past decade-plus. An improved camera is a feature of the new Max Pro, while the Watch Series 9 boasts a new processor.

Gone are the days of new, innovative products representing a step beyond its competition at Apple. In fact, since founder Steve Jobs’ death in 2011, Apple has turned increasingly to its back-end advantages and away from new product launches independent from updates, and more toward unveiling events like the one we saw today. The company is still the biggest in the world by market cap, and even with Chinese officials facing a ban on usage of iPhone products, there doesn’t look to be any insurgent company threatening Apple’s perch.

Shares closed down for Apple today, -1.7%, and has yet to recover to near-term highs early this month, prior to the ban out of China. Apple is trading +41% year to date but only +14.6% over the last full year. The new iPhone and Apple Watch products will be available Friday, September 22nd — just in time to show up somewhat in pending fiscal Q4 earnings and sales results, which are expected to come out the last week of October.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers will be released tomorrow morning for the month of August, and depending on which figures you’re looking at, you’re likely to see either meaningful gains or a meaningful reduction. Headline month-over-month CPI is expected to rise to +0.6% from +0.2% the previous month, although the core print is expected to remain +0.2% month over month. Year over year, +3.6% is what analysts are looking for, 40 basis points above the +3.2% reported for July, but core CPI year over year is expected to drop to +4.3% from the previous month’s +4.7%.

This last is likely the main takeaway from tomorrow’s CPI report. Should these numbers come in as expected, this will be the lowest core CPI read in nearly two years. Yes, it’s still more than double what the Fed continues to assert as optimum inflation levels, but a +4.3% — or lower — is likely to be taken well by market participants who today had little appetite to up-bid the markets. That said, a higher-than-expected core CPI number may reignite speculation that more Fed rate hikes are in the cards, which would likely provide a sell signal.

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