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Will High Expenses Hurt MarketAxess (MKTX) in Q3 Earnings?

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MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX - Free Report) is slated to report third-quarter 2023 results on Oct 25, before the opening bell.

Q3 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MarketAxess’ third-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $1.49, which implies a decline of 5.7% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for revenues stands at $173 million, suggesting 0.6% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

Earnings Surprise History

MarketAxess boasts a solid earnings surprise history. Its bottom line beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 4.04%. This is depicted in the chart below:

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. price-eps-surprise | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Quote

 

Factors at Play

An increase in credit commission revenues, resulting from improved trading volumes and strong estimated market share gains across most of its credit product lines, is expected to have driven revenue growth in the third quarter. Expanding trading volumes are likely to have contributed to higher variable transaction fees of MarketAxess.

However, the upside is likely to have been partly offset by a decrease in total credit fee capture in the to-be-reported quarter, which in turn, is expected to have suffered from the lower duration of U.S. high-grade bonds traded on MKTX’s platform.

We estimate variable transaction fees to be $128.9 million, which implies a 5.9% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for total commissions stands at $165.2 million, up 7.8% year over year.
 
A strong international business is expected to have benefited the quarterly results of MarketAxess. Additionally, improved information services revenues, as a result of the increased utilization of its data product portfolio and signing of new contracts, are likely to have aided the top line in the third quarter. We expect information services revenues to be $10.9 million, suggesting 12.5% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

Despite growth in credit trading volume, the overall trading volumes of MarketAxess are likely to have received a setback due to a decline in trading figures of its U.S. government bonds and rates product line. Our estimate suggests the total trading volume to decline 1.7% year over year.  

The bottom line of MKTX is expected to have been hurt by continuous investments related to the upgradation of trading systems and data capabilities. Employee compensation and benefits expense are likely to have remained elevated in the third quarter due to increased headcount and customer-facing roles to aid revenue growth initiatives. We anticipate total expenses to escalate 9.7% year over year to $105.1 million for MarketAxess in the to-be-reported quarter. 

What our Quantitative Model Predicts

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for MarketAxess this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here, as you see below.

Earnings ESP: MarketAxess has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: MKTX currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for MarketAxess, here are some companies from the Finance space, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.85% and a Zacks Rank of 2, currently. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCNCA’s third-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $48.35 per share, which has more than doubled from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

First Citizens BancShares’ bottom line beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark twice, the average surprise being 0.92%.

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.71% and a Zacks Rank of 2, currently. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CBOE’s third-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $1.84 per share, suggesting 5.8% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

CBOE Global’s bottom line beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 3.07%.

Healthpeak Properties, Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +0.88% and a Zacks Rank of 3, currently. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PEAK’s third-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at 44 cents per share, which indicates an improvement of 2.3% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

Healthpeak Properties’ earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and matched the mark twice, the average surprise being 1.15%.

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